Sometimes things align just so in the atmosphere to produce something spectacular. This is one of those times. Visit our Complete Guide to Fall 2022 for an in-depth look at Fall Forecasts, tips to plan for it, and more! On paper, Typhoon Merbok looks unremarkable. An intensifying hurricane in the Pacific is hardly noticeable, but its location where it intensifies is a bit complicated. Only a few historic hurricanes make the journey north of 40 degrees latitude and retain tropical characteristics in the western Pacific basin. It will be interesting to see if the Merbok actually reaches Category 2 intensity as currently predicted by the JTWC. If this prediction comes true, it will be almost unprecedented in modern records so far northeast. pic.twitter.com/bhIQIYVLUG It will be interesting to see if the Merbok actually reaches Category 2 intensity as currently predicted by the JTWC. If this prediction comes true, it will be almost unprecedented in modern records so far northeast. Tomer Burg on Twitter: “It will be interesting to see if Merbok actually reaches Category 2 intensity as currently predicted by the JTWC. If this prediction comes true, it will be almost unprecedented in modern records so far north/ east. pic.twitter.com/bhIQIYVLUG / Twitter” — Tomer Burg (@burgwx) Tomer Burg on Twitter: “It will be interesting to see if Merbok actually reaches Category 2 intensity as currently predicted by the JTWC. If this prediction comes true, it will be almost unprecedented in modern times record all the way north/east. pic.twitter.com/bhIQIYVLUG / Twitter” Some infamous examples include Hurricane Freda in 1962, the remnants of which strengthened the devastating Columbus Day storm in the Pacific Northwest. More recently, Typhoon Songda in 2014 made a similar, strange journey northward. This storm grazed the Pacific Northwest, but its wind field remained compact and mostly offshore. Tropical storms derive their energy from warm sea surface temperatures and is the critical clue as to why Typhoon Merbok is a major overperformer. Temperatures are more than 4°C above normal in the North Pacific. It will have fast forward speed and may retain tropical characteristics until Thursday before classic fronts develop — typical of mid-latitude cyclones. Coincidentally, a cold upper trough moves in from Siberia, trapping and strengthening the tropical remnant and causing the system to easily achieve bombogenesis — a pressure drop of 24 hPa in 24 hours — before generating massive waves in the Bering Sea. Its barometric pressure can drop below 940 hPa, which is unusual for September. Deepest ever for the region? Barely. In late December 2020, a low pressure system developed with record cold flow across Japan, reaching a pressure below 930 hPa. Some perspective. Deepest Atlantic hurricane in 2022 by September 13? 954 hPa, attributed to Hurricane Earl. The former Merbok will have a ripple effect downstream and create a fairly large trough over Alaska and the Yukon. This action will continue to strengthen a threshold in Western Canada early next week. The disturbance continues to the east. As the trough digs to the west, there will be an area of severe weather, including the prospect of a classic low developing over the eastern prairies. Extreme temperatures on the prairies will be unusual, with wet snow on higher ground in Alberta and southern Manitoba reaching 30°C. Across Ontario and Quebec, there is growing confidence of temperatures topping 30°C, so some daily temperature records will likely fall next week. It is a relatively rare feat to record 30°C in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) after mid-September, with Pearson International Airport reaching this end of the season more than 15 times since 1938.
