Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s meeting, scheduled for Thursday at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, is likely to involve a struggle for influence in central Asia, where the two world powers have long a “quiet rivalry”. The SCO summit, an annual meeting of Eurasian leaders on regional politics, economics and security, comes at a critical time when a rising China and a weakening Russia could shift the balance of power in the Central Asia for the benefit of Beijing. Both leaders also have stops planned in Kazakhstan, where Xi first launched his trademark “belt and road” foreign investment initiative in 2013. Underscoring the importance of the region, Xi’s visit will be his first international travel since the start of the pandemic and comes just a month before a crucial Communist Party meeting expected to cement his third term as leader, having collapsed the previous one. Central Asia was “at the center of Xi’s strategies,” said Therese Fallon, director of the Center for Russia Studies for Europe in Asia. “If we think about China’s grand strategy … it’s pretty clear that they’ve pushed westward.” Xi and Putin last met on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics, where they announced their partnership, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian officials said the two leaders have a “full and detailed agenda” for the talks, and some analysts said they expected Putin to seek more help from China after Russia suffered one of its worst defeats in the war. Beijing has struggled to balance its support for Moscow with a desire to avoid the indirect impact on the economy of sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. He refused to condemn the invasion, blaming the West for igniting tensions. It stopped short of providing weapons support, but reportedly provided drone parts and last week took part in joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan. On Friday, Russia claimed that Beijing’s third-highest figure had offered unprecedented support for its actions in Ukraine. According to Moscow, Li Zhanshu told Russian lawmakers that China “understands and supports Russia,” particularly “on the situation in Ukraine.” The Chinese reading simply said Beijing would “continue to work with Russia to firmly support each other” on key interests. The strength of the global response to the invasion and recent Russian losses have raised difficult questions for Xi about his foreign policy acumen in aligning with Putin, but he is likely to remain supportive, said Professor Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior fellow with the Center Navy. Analyzes, courtesy of Montclair State University. “With Russia under pressure on the battlefield, Xi may feel compelled to express more rhetorical support for Russia, or at least level some additional criticism of NATO and the US,” Wishnick said. Analysts have suggested that as Russia’s power declines, Beijing may gain ground on key issues of trade routes and the defense of the Xinjiang regime. Niva Yau, a senior researcher at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, said China had a long-term goal of shifting global trade from sea to land, especially for energy trade routes “which can reduce sanctions on China if ever comes to a military occupation of Taiwan.” He said the summit could announce deals on trade and transport, or renamed “belt and road” investments. Russia had similar goals to China, Yao said, but with the reduction in power Putin will likely focus on ensuring that Russia is not excluded from its regional interests by China’s plans. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted China’s overland trade routes, complicated Chinese investment in central Asia and damaged Russia’s ability to be the dominant security presence in the region, Wishnick said. It left open the question of whether China was ready to take on a larger security role and whether Russia and the region would accept it. Before meeting, Xi and Putin reportedly planned to each sit down with Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Zomart Tokayev, a key figure in the region, particularly for China’s interests. “What we expect from this trip is that Xi Jinping is really trying to see what Tokayev is like as a president, and in terms of China’s core principles,” Yao said. Tokayev, a former diplomat who speaks Chinese and Russian, came to power in 2019 after nearly three decades of rule by his predecessor. Analysts said that although Kazakhstan has traditionally leaned towards Russia – in January it called on Moscow for help to quell mass protests – it was also interested in China and its “deep pockets”. Another key factor for China will be securing regional support for its pushback against global condemnation of its human rights abuses in Xinjiang, which borders Kazakhstan and is a Muslim-majority country. “Kazakhstan is arguably the most important country to join,” Yau said.
