The remaining Russian troops on the eastern and southern fronts in Ukraine are battered, “degraded” in military parlance, and morale is low. Sweeping gains by Ukrainian forces saw more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) of territory reclaimed in 12 days – four times the size of Greater London or larger than Denmark, according to various comparisons. The time and tide of conflict are changing and the beginning of the end may now be here. Volodymyr Zelensky’s government has urged the West to speed up arms supplies to maintain the momentum of its attacks. US officials have also said there are ongoing discussions about whether to provide Kyiv with warplanes, although this will not happen in the near future. NATO has committed more than $8 billion (£6.9 billion) in military equipment to Ukraine, with $4.6 billion coming from the US. Senior Western officials attending a conference in Kyiv at the weekend confirmed that several NATO governments are in talks with manufacturers to increase production. The arrival of equipment such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMAR) and Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) weapons has undoubtedly changed the battlefield, halting the seemingly relentless Russian advance in the Donbas to the east. However, even with more advanced weapons it is not going to be quick, and the next phase of reclaiming the occupied land will continue to be bloody and bitter, and not necessarily a one-way street. Three months ago, as Ukrainian troops entered newly liberated towns and villages around Kharkiv after months of pounding, the mood was understandably explosive. One unit was sent photos of comrades who had reached the Russian border and the images were shared on social media. There was similar excitement on Monday, as the Ukrainian government announced that some of its forces had reached the northeastern border with Russia. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, warned three months ago against excessive optimism. Russian attacks on some of the liberated villages while we were there showed that they had not gone that far. They then returned within range of the Kharkiv artillery and began shelling the city again. Last week, General Syrskyi was in the recaptured town of Balakliya. As the Ukrainian flag was raised in the central square he said: “Today we complete the liberation of Balaklia, the first major city in our offensive. I’m sure it won’t be the last city. Ahead of us are Kupiansk, Izium and many others.” Within a few days, Kupiansk, a key point on the Russian supply route where several railway lines meet, was captured, followed by Izium, the main Russian military stronghold on that front line that stretches down the road to the Donbas. Colonel General – an old Soviet rank abolished in Ukraine with the exception of Syrskyi – is said to be much more confident this time that the Russians will not be able to return to the Kharkiv region. Captain Nikolai, serving in a mounted infantry regiment, had taken part in the last Kharkov counterattack. There were differences this time, he felt. “We found that more and more from the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DNR and LNR) and less Russian and they were as poorly trained and armed as usual,” he said. “We arrested several and they were in a sorry state. Some of them said they were dragged from streets, from shops, to fight. Whatever the truth, they didn’t want to be here.” A fellow officer, Lieutenant Oleksei, added: “Overall, there were fewer of them. We found that in some posts they were fudging the numbers trying to show that there was more than was the case. When we occupied positions, we found that they did not lack weapons, ammunition, but fewer soldiers than we expected.” A senior Russian-appointed official in the Kharkiv region, Vitaly Gadchev, said Ukrainian forces outnumbered the Russians eight to one during the counterattack. Ukrainian officials deny that the gap was that wide, but acknowledged that the Russians have moved far south in response to another Ukrainian offensive toward the city of Kherson. Some Ukrainian officials, and westerners by proxy, claimed that the Kherson “operation” was a ruse to fool the Russians, while the one targeting Izium from Kharkiv was always the real deal. This, however, appears to be an attempt to take full advantage of the factor of Russian unpreparedness. “Never let a Russian crisis go to waste,” said a presidential administration official. “There is a lot of resentment among the Russian military about what is happening. Lack of organization, lack of intelligence, we try to use it.” Kherson is very much a real operation, but progress has been slow for the Ukrainians on this front. The media, both Ukrainian and international, are kept away from the front lines by the government, so it is difficult to assess the state of play independently. But signs of discord back in Russia over what’s unfolding in Ukraine are certainly on the rise and more open. A pro-Moscow Ukrainian blogger, Yury Podoliaka, who has 2.2 million followers on Telegram, said: “We have to be honest, the Ukrainian administration outsmarted us here.” He warned of a “serious combat defeat” unless the Kremlin succeeds in “halting the Ukrainian breakthrough”. A Russian military blogger, Maksim Fomin, said Russian forces had been hit. “The situation is very difficult. Let’s exhale and say we are defeated,” he said. Fomin called for an investigation into why Russian forces were seemingly unprepared for the Ukrainian attack that led to the disaster. What should worry the Kremlin is that Ramzan Kadyrov, a staunch ally, has now turned his guns on the Russian leadership for destruction. The Chechen leader, whose thousands of soldiers have fought in Ukraine, said the “real situation” on the ground was “amazing” and accused the military command of major mistakes. The Russian mercenary company Wagner Group, run by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, another ally of Vladimir Putin, has also been deployed in Ukraine. Their numbers have risen as the Russian military struggles to replace the growing number of dead and wounded. Prigozhin became a Hero of the Russian Federation Military commanders were fired and replaced after perceived failures in the conflict, and Moscow began to rely even more on the private security company along with the Chechens. Wagner, too, has victims. Last month the Ukrainians hit the Group’s forward base at Popashna, killing a large number of fighters, using US HIMARs and there are reports that he is having trouble getting numbers for Ukraine. A former Wagner contractor who was deployed to Syria and Libya said friends serving in Ukraine told him it was only a matter of time before Russian defenses were breached. “It is known that the situation is very bad there and many people do not want to go. I was told of all kinds of problems, lack of coordination, lack of planning, untrained soldiers who were dangers to everyone else. I thought about Ukraine, I went to take a look at Donetsk, but I didn’t go in the end and I certainly won’t go now,” said Murat Usmanov who now lives in a Central Asian Republic. “Theirs [Wagner’s] The quality has also deteriorated, the shipping people are substandard. The Russians underestimated the Ukrainians who are better trained and better armed. With the coming winter, many people on the Russian side will not have proper clothing, proper equipment, proper weapons, it will become even worse for them.”
