What happens?
In a sharp escalation of hostilities, Armenia said nearly 50 of its soldiers had been killed in clashes along the border with Azerbaijan. Both sides blame each other for the deadliest flare-up since the 2020 war, and world powers have called for a ceasefire.
What is the background?
Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous, landlocked region within Azerbaijan’s borders that has been a source of dispute for more than a century. The region is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, but has a predominantly Armenian population that resisted Azerbaijani rule. In 1991, the region of about 150,000 inhabitants declared its independence and has since governed itself – with Armenian support – as the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh. Despite signs of progress in recent years towards peace, the “frozen conflict” flared up again in 2020. Azerbaijan reclaimed large swathes of Nagorno-Karabakh in a six-week war that killed more than 6,600 people and ended with a mediated peace deal of Russia. Moscow has deployed about 2,000 troops to the region to serve as peacekeepers. Azerbaijan is majority Muslim and Armenia is majority Christian, and some elements on both sides seek to cast the conflict in religious terms, although analysts say that angle is exaggerated. Armenia and Azerbaijan
Why are they fighting now?
An Armenian revolution in 2018 ushered in a new generation of leadership and raised hopes that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could move toward a resolution. Those ambitions have since been scaled back, with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan taking a firm – and in the eyes of Azerbaijan’s leaders, defiant – line on the issue. Azerbaijan, which has been under the control of a single family since 1993, says it is responding to Armenian aggression in areas that are legally its territory and have been occupied by enemy troops and separatists for decades.
Why does conflict matter?
Apart from the humanitarian issue, with civilians on both sides being killed, the conflict is of international concern for a number of reasons. The wider South Caucasus is a critical artery for natural gas and oil from Azerbaijan to Turkey and on to Europe and other global markets. Regional powers, including Russia, Turkey and Iran, invest in the South Caucasus to varying degrees. Turkey has already declared its firm support for Turkic-speaking Azerbaijan, while Russia has a security alliance with Armenia, although it sells weapons to both countries. Moscow and Ankara are vying for influence in various theaters around the world, including Syria and Libya. Moreover, Moscow’s stake in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – while also fighting in Ukraine – adds a new element of uncertainty to the crisis.
