By 2070, that may no longer be the case, according to the Pew Research Center. If current trends continue, Christians could make up less than half the population – and as little as a third – in 50 years. Meanwhile, the religiously unaffiliated — or “none” — could make up nearly half the population. And the percentage of Americans who identify as Muslim, Jewish, Hindu, Buddhist and followers of other non-Christian religions could double. These are among the major findings of a new Pew report on the religious future of the United States, a future in which Christianity, though in decline, persists, while non-Christian religions thrive amid increasing secularization. American secularism is growing — and getting more complicated The researchers projected possible religious futures for the United States using a range of factors, including birth rates, immigration patterns, demographics including age and gender, and the current religious landscape. They also looked at how religion is passed down from one generation to the next, and how often people change religions — particularly Christians who become non-Christians, a number that has been increasing in recent years. The researchers projected four different scenarios, based on different rates of religious change, from a continued increase to no change. The unaffiliated were projected to increase in all four. Currently, about a third (31 percent) of Christians become inadequate before the age of 30, according to Pew Research. Twenty-one percent of none become Christians as young adults. If these rates of change remain constant, Christians will make up 46 percent of the population by 2070, while none will make up 41 percent. If attrition rates continue to rise but are limited to 50 percent of Christians leaving the faith, 39 percent of Americans are projected to be Christians by 2070, with 48 percent of Americans identifying as neither. With no limit placed on the percentage of people leaving Christianity, and with a continued increase in independence, Christians would be 35 percent of the population, with none making up the majority of Americans (52 percent). If all changes stopped, Christians would remain a small majority (54 percent) and none would make up 34 percent of Americans, according to the model. More Americans are becoming secular, poll finds Non-Christian religions would increase to 12 to 13 percent of the population, mostly due to immigration, in each scenario. Immigration does affect the percentage of Christians, as most immigrants to the United States are Christians, said Conrad Hackett, associate director of research and senior demographer at the Pew Research Center. “Even the biggest change in the U.S., we think right now and in the future, will come from change,” he said. The researchers emphasized that the report contained predictions based on data and mathematical models and were not predictions of the future. “Although some scenarios are more plausible than others, the future is uncertain, and it is possible that the religious composition of the United States in 2070 will deviate from the predicted bounds,” they wrote. One reason for the decline in the percentage of Christians and growth among non-Christians in the models is age. While Christians have more children than anyone else, they skew older too. Pew estimates that the average Christian in the United States is 43 years old, which is 10 years older than the average nobody. “The unaffiliated have and raise unaffiliated children, while Christians are more likely to be nearing the end of their lives than others,” Stephanie Kramer, a senior researcher at Pew, wrote in an email. Using mathematical models, Pew has also projected the future of religion around the world. These models were adapted for different regions, Hackett said. Muslims, for example, tend to have the youngest population and the highest fertility rates, he said, fueling the growth of that faith. But in the Gulf states, immigration has brought many Christians from other countries to the region as temporary workers. The current report takes advantage of the volume of data being collected on the US religious landscape. The researchers also looked at intergenerational transmission for the first time, Kramer said. “The variables we use to study were: What is the mother’s religion? And what is the teenager’s religion?’ he said. “If this was a match, we think the mother’s religion is transmitted.” The researchers also looked at a relatively new trend of disconnection among older Americans. Sociologists have long focused on younger people, who are more likely to convert. But in the United States and other countries, the elderly are beginning to change themselves at increasing rates. “It’s not as large-scale, but it’s still significant,” Hackett said. “And it contributes to the religious change that we have experienced and that we expect to experience in the coming years.” New York will force ultra-Orthodox schools to teach secular subjects Hackett said the predictions for the country do not indicate the end of Christianity or religion in general, which he expects to remain strong. And most nobodies, while not claiming no religion, do not identify as atheists. Instead, Kramer said, the United States appears to be going through a pattern of secularization that has occurred in other countries, although “we may be a little behind.” Other factors outside the model — such as changing immigration patterns and religious innovation — could lead to a resurgence of Christianity in the United States, according to the report. But none of its models show a reversal of the decline in the Christian faith, which fell from 78 percent in 2007 to 63 percent in 2020, according to the Pew survey. In the report, the researchers note that “there is no evidence to model a sudden or gradual revival of Christianity (or religion in general) in the US.” “This does not mean that a religious revival is impossible,” they wrote. “It means that there is no demographic base to which it can be projected.” — Religion News Service
