Professor Michael Clarke said such a development would be a “huge victory” – adding that while the recent gains in Kharkiv were significant, the recapture of Kherson in the south would be “very important”. Kherson is located just north of the Crimean peninsula and is the only major city in Ukraine that Moscow has captured. If Ukraine took it back, the whole of Crimea – which Russia annexed in 2014 – would be within range of Kiev’s artillery and missiles, Professor Clarke said. That could make Crimea “impossible for the Russians to operate militarily,” he added. There are signs that Russian defenses in Kherson are beginning to crumble and troops may be running out of ammunition. “The Ukrainians have got momentum on their side, and in battle, momentum matters a lot. “There are reports – unconfirmed, but many – that local ceasefires or local surrenders are being arranged, particularly in the northern part of the Kherson sector,” Professor Clarke said. “The Russians seem to be out of food and everything. Once they run out of ammunition, they have no choice but to surrender or run. “And they can’t run because they can’t cross the Dnipro River.” Read more: What is Putin doing now? Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 3:29 How Ukraine repels Russia? He added: “The Russians are clearly under pressure and they may or may not crack, the same way they have in Donbas. “But the troops that the Russians have in Kherson are better quality troops in general. So if they crack, in that area, that would be very important.” At some stage, “the Ukrainian offensive will peter out, but not for a while,” Professor Clarke said. And as the Russians reset, it’s only going to get harder. “The Russians are capable of digging in a front line of 2,400 kilometers,” he added. Professor Clarke explained that Kherson “controls access to Crimea” and “controls some of the hydropower that goes to Crimea”. He continued: “If the Ukrainians are able to take back the entire coast of the Kherson region, then the entire Crimea is within the range of their artillery and missiles. “They could make Crimea impossible for the Russians to operate militarily if they chose.” Professor Clarke predicts, next year, a “shaky ceasefire which may now be on more favorable terms than the Ukrainians could have guessed even a week ago”. He commented: “I think the Ukrainians may have an opportunity, on the other side of winter, to throw the Russians out of all the territory they have occupied since February of this year. “And that would be a huge win.”
