The report was commissioned by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and was written by former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak. The purpose of the report was to provide a security structure for Ukraine that would guarantee Russia would not seek to invade again, and is separate from Zelensky’s calls for the West to increase arms supplies to head off a sudden Ukrainian advance troops. Ukraine’s possible future NATO membership was one of the issues Russia claimed as justification for its invasion in February. The report, the subject of wide diplomatic consultation, does not suggest that NATO countries collectively should be forced to offer their troops to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty, but says there should be no limit to the military, diplomatic and financial aid provided by the NATO member states through bilateral agreements. The level of support could be escalated depending on the threat level and should apply to all of Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. The report argues that “the strongest security guarantee for Ukraine lies in its ability to defend itself against an aggressor… To do so, Ukraine needs the resources to maintain a significant defense force capable of withstanding its armed forces and paramilitaries Russian Federation. “This requires a multi-decade effort of sustained investment in Ukraine’s defense industrial base, escalating arms transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the flag of the European Union and NATO.” A core group of allied countries to join Ukraine includes the US, the UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey and the Scandinavian, Baltic, Central and Eastern Europe. Military guarantees may provide commitments to Ukraine that amount to “closed skies” through the provision of anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense equipment. The guarantees, the report suggests, should not require Ukraine to limit the size or strength of its armed forces or adopt a position of neutrality, but would require Ukraine to remain on a democratic path. Critics of the report will question the enforceability of the proposed legal safeguards, the scale of financial support required and the threat that such a powerful army could act in more than self-defence. Ukrainian forces will be trained to NATO standards and at the scale required to build a strong territorial defense force and reserve force, including a form of conscription for civilians over the age of 18. The training activities will be supported by an extensive program of exercises both on Ukrainian soil and with Ukrainian forces on EU or NATO soil. Non-NATO countries such as South Korea may provide civilian guarantees, such as a commitment to sanctions in the event of further Russian aggression. A legal framework should be developed that would allow the authorities to freeze the attacker’s property, state funds and reserves, as well as the assets of citizens and entities included in the sanctions list. The sanctions will not be lifted until Russia stops its aggression against Ukraine, guarantees that it will not attack Ukraine in the future, and compensates Ukraine for the damage caused during the invasion. Rasmussen said: “Once this war is over, we must ensure that Russia can never invade again. The best way to do this is for Ukraine to have a significant military force capable of withstanding any future Russian attack. Building and maintaining such a force requires a multi-decade commitment from Ukraine’s allies. “Adoption of these recommendations will send a strong message to Vladimir Putin. It would show that our commitment to Ukraine will not waver, that his war is futile.”
