Alexey Nikolsky | Afp | Getty Images Russia has been upset about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and generals fear that Moscow could punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an attempt to save face. Kiev forces have launched a massive counteroffensive in the country’s northeast, retaking thousands of kilometers of Russian-held land in recent days. Now thoughts are turning to possible Russian retaliation, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he expected a counter-attack. “A counterattack frees up territory, and then you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Reznikov said, adding: “Of course, we have to worry, this war has worried us for years.” Russia has already launched heavy shelling in the Kharkiv region since Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister told Reuters it was too early to say Ukraine has full control of the region. Close Kremlin aides say President Vladimir Putin is likely considering his options now. “The military story for the Kremlin is getting worse,” Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasia Group, said in a note on Monday. “To the extent that it continues, it is pushing Putin to call for mobilization — likely a partial one but a politically and socially costly move for the Russian president at home that would force him to declare war on Ukraine and tacitly admit that Russia is in military trouble ,” he said in emailed comments. Russia has insisted on calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation,” not a war.
“Furthermore, it makes Russian willingness to inflict Grozny-like ‘punishment’ on Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers and, at worst, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic,” Bremer added. “If there is a possible short-term change in Russia’s war going forward, it is incremental rather than a major negotiated advance.”

Frustration is mounting

Ukraine’s battlefield victories in recent days and its ability to reclaim dozens of towns and villages in the Kharkiv region put Russia on the back foot. It is now fighting to defend its territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, home to two pro-Russian “republics”, in Donbas in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are widely believed to have been caught off guard by Ukraine’s counterattack in the country’s northeast and were greatly outnumbered. There were indications that Russian forces had beaten a hasty retreat, with Russian equipment and ammunition stores being abandoned. Prior to these counterattacks in the northeast, Kyiv had largely promoted a counteroffensive in southern Ukraine – leading Russia to redeploy troops there. Firefighters of the State Emergency Service work to extinguish a fire that broke out after a Russian missile attack on an energy facility in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine. On Sunday afternoon, Russian invaders fired 11 cruise missiles at critical urban infrastructure in Ukraine, strikes seen as “revenge” for retaking occupied land. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images On Monday, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s goals in Ukraine remained the same — to “liberate” Donbas — and insisted the fighting would continue. However, there are voices of discontent in Russia, with even staunch Kremlin supporters questioning the war in public forums, including on Russian state television. “We’ve been told everything is going according to plan. Can you believe that six months ago the plan was for me to leave [the city of] Balakliya, fending off a counterattack in the Kharkiv region and failing to capture Kharkiv?” usually pro-Putin political expert Viktor Olevych told state-run NTV channel, the Moscow Times reported. Another public figure, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin, said Russia would not win the war if it continued to fight as it was and said there must be “either mobilization and full-scale war, or we’re out.” Analysts at global risk consultancy Teneo noted in comments sent Monday night that military casualties and the humiliation of Russian troops “pose risks to President Vladimir Putin’s regime as domestic criticism of the conduct of the so-called special military operation intensifies from various sides. “ “As a result, Putin faces increasing pressure to respond to increasingly adverse dynamics on the front lines, which may include either escalation moves or calls to open cease-fire talks,” they add.

Putin’s “dark choice”.

Putin’s regime now faces a difficult choice. the war is dragging on and his undersupplied forces are likely to be demoralized as they come under pressure from Ukraine’s well-organized and well-armed military. “Moscow is faced with a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine – which seems inevitable given current troop deployments, supply chains and momentum on the Ukrainian side – and sue for peace,” he said Timothy Ash, senior emerging market strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note on Monday. “Or escalate with mass mobilization and WMD [weapon of mass destruction]or perhaps Syrian-style indiscriminate leveling of Ukrainian cities.” Ash said Putin had likely complained about the option of mass mobilization, which would put Russia on a war footing and see the conscription of many of its own citizens. The “danger is that they will come home with bags and cause internal social and political unrest in Russia,” he said, but added that Putin was also unlikely to resort to unconventional weapons – such as WMD. “Putin had the opportunity and failed to pull the trigger as he knows these are only real deterrents and once he unleashes them we are in a whole new ball game, the risk of World War 3 and a chain of events that will be very difficult . make it, but where he is clearly seen as the aggressor/crazy and loses most of his friends internationally, including China, etc.” Ash added. He said that, after more attempts at intensive airstrikes in Ukraine, he expected Putin to try to start “serious” peace talks. “But he will have to hurry as the ground in Ukraine, and possibly even Moscow, is shifting rapidly under his feet,” Ash noted. “At this stage a complete collapse of Russian forces throughout Ukraine is entirely possible – including that which took place before February 24, including Crimea, even to talk about possible splits in Moscow and risks for Putin’s stay in power. Watch this space.”