BERLIN — Love Germany or hate it, few would dispute that it is a land of pessimists, a land where the glass is half empty and every silver lining comes with a dark cloud. There is, of course, a German word for this phenomenon: Schwarzmalerei, painting black. In normal times, the German’s boisterous nature provides a source of hilarity for her neighbors and allies. With the tide seemingly turning in the war in Ukraine, no one is amused. On Monday, Christine Lambrecht, the latest in a long line of German defense ministers with little or no military experience, made it clear that Ukraine’s battlefield gains would not change Berlin’s refusal to provide the country with much-needed tanks. Lambrecht, in what was described as a “landmark” speech in Berlin, criticized Russia for its “horrible war of aggression” and said it was time for Germany to take a “leading role” in European security. Helping Ukraine win does not appear to be part of this strategy.
Germany’s refusal to hand over tanks is a classic example of Schwarzmalerei-led policy. Rooted in fear, German reluctance threatens not only Ukrainian security. undermines the stability and cohesion of the European Union and NATO. “Berlin’s hesitation, its inaction, seriously calls into question the value and alliance with Germany,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told Der Spiegel in an interview published in the current edition of the weekly. The Polish leader, whose country has been one of the most generous arms suppliers to Ukraine, added that “many other government leaders in Europe” share his view.
With Russian forces retreating in eastern Ukraine, if ever there was a time for Berlin to reconsider its stance on tanks, it’s now. Instead, the heated debate continues. In recent days, the German black painters have been out in force. Despite the progress Ukraine has made on the battlefield, it would be foolish, they tirelessly argue, to assume that Kyiv can recapture its occupied territories, much less win the war.
“It’s probably not going to continue like this,” Christian Molling, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, a state-funded think tank, told ZDF, the public broadcaster, over the weekend. The Ukrainians are running out of ammunition and fuel, he noted. Johannes Warwick, a German political scientist who has been pouring cold water on Ukraine’s prospects in the country’s media for months, went even darker. “Unpopular opinion,” he tweeted. “In my view, reports of Ukrainian military success do not change the big picture: Russia (unfortunately) has escalation dominance and medium-term higher endurance. There is no alternative to the political reconciliation of interests.” The German refusal to hand over tanks is a classic example of national pessimism Steffen Kugler/Bundesregierung via Getty Images Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany Andrij Melnyk gave his own honest assessment in response: “Unpopular opinion: Fuck you.” While not all commentators on the country’s war are convinced Ukraine will lose, the pessimism expressed by people like Varwick lies at the heart of Germany’s reluctance – despite widespread public sympathy for the Ukrainian cause – to provide more aid. While a clear majority of Germans want to support Ukraine, only about a third support sending heavy weapons such as tanks. Germany, in fact, has delivered heavy armaments to Ukraine, including 10 shells, anti-aircraft systems and other, mainly defensive, armaments. Critics say the level of military aid, which totaled 1.2 billion euros by mid-August, according to data tracked by the Kiel-based Institute for the World Economy, is out of proportion for a country of its size and wealth. . By comparison, the US has so far committed about 25 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine. Germany’s tripartite governing coalition is split on the tank issue, with some voices in the Greens and liberal Free Democrats calling for tank deliveries. But practically, the answer remains ‘Nein’. During a visit to Kyiv this weekend, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was pressed by her Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba about his country’s need for tanks. She refused to make commitments on the tanks, saying only that her government remained in “intensive” discussions about arms deliveries. Ultimately, responsibility for the decision not to send tanks rests with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is keen to stress that neither the United States nor any other country has sent Western-made tanks to Ukraine. Scholz’s argument is disappointing for those fighting in Ukraine. As the manufacturer of one of the world’s most effective tanks, known as the Leopard, no country in Europe is better placed to supply Ukraine than Germany. In addition, the country has hundreds of decommissioned Leopards at its disposal. If Berlin’s reticence was easier for some to understand in the early days of the war, when the full scale of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s colonial ambitions was not yet clear to everyone, it has become increasingly difficult to justify. Even US President Joe Biden’s administration, which generally treats Berlin with kid gloves, has begun to take a more assertive tone. “As much as I admire and applaud everything that Germany is doing … we have to do more,” Amy Gutmann, the US ambassador to Germany, told German television on Sunday, adding that her “own peace and well-being” was at stake. West. Much has been written about the reasons for Berlin’s soft approach to Moscow: the country’s business interests, the legacy of Ostpolitik and the Russophilia of the German left played a role. But with Ukraine finally making significant progress on the battlefield, it’s hard not to think that Germany’s own history is not about continued intransigence. Call it the ghost of Stalingrad. There is no German war guilt at play here for the damage Hitler’s armies did to Russia (after all, Ukraine suffered more than Russia under German occupation). Rather, like the Ukrainians, the Germans were convinced that they could defeat Russia. Eventually, though, they discovered they couldn’t. If Germans want to reflect on the lessons of history, they would do well to ask themselves a different question. Instead of worrying about the miscalculations that led to their defeat during World War II, they should consider what Europe would look like now if they had been allowed to win.