The Ukrainian performance has fueled dissent in Russia, strengthened President Biden’s hand in rallying support for the country, opened new opportunities for Kyiv and is expected to make it harder for Russia to find support from its allies. “Obviously they are fighting hard,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Monday of Ukrainian troops, noting that Russian forces have “largely ceded their gains to the Ukrainians” in the area of Kharkiv province, with “many” The Russian forces are moving back across the border into Russia. The Ukrainian military launched a counteroffensive last week that is rapidly regaining ground and pushing Russian troops back to the country’s northeastern border in some places. The lightning advance forced thousands of Kremlin troops to retreat quickly, leaving behind stockpiles of ammunition and equipment, reports of abandonment that could be “indicative of Russia’s disorganized command and control,” the defense official said. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces had recaptured 6,000 square kilometers of land in eastern and southern Ukraine since early September. The cities recovered included Izyum, a key city in the struggle. The loss of Izyum marks Russia’s worst military defeat since March, when its troops were unable to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and were forced to retreat. For Ukraine, the rapid advance could be a turning point in the 6-month war that moves the battle away from a battle of attrition. For Russia and Putin, it could force some very tough decisions about conscription and the future of a war that Moscow still insists is just a special military operation. “It’s choice time for President Putin,” said Eric Uland, undersecretary of state for national security, democracy and human rights affairs under former President Trump. “For allies in the West, it is a time of vigilance, constant communication and clear lines about what would not be acceptable from Russia, especially on the military front, as President Putin and his leadership continue to process what is happening in Ukraine.” Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on economic issues via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow on September 12, 2022. (Photo by Gavriil Grigorov/SPUTNIK/AFP) Heidi Crebo-Rediker, assistant senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Putin could react harshly to the growing momentum from Ukraine. “To the extent that there may be gains from Ukraine, much to their credit, I fear now that the retaliation we could see from Putin in the coming days and weeks could be even more brutal against civilians than we’ve already seen,” he said. In an effort to bring Russia to its knees and help Ukrainian forces, the United States has been at the forefront of imposing harsh sanctions on Moscow and sending military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the start of the war. To keep Ukraine supplied with a steady flow of weapons, the US since April has led a 50-nation effort, known as the Ukraine Contact Group, to coordinate the flow of military aid. Last week, US officials announced a new $675 million arms and equipment package for Kyiv as well as $2.2 billion in “long-term” military support to bolster the security of Ukraine and 18 neighboring countries at risk of future Russian attack. “We see how bravely Ukrainians are fighting to fight for their freedom, and we support that,” White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre said Monday, adding that the White House was “grateful” for bipartisan support for Ukraine aid. . In Russia, the retreat has caused problems for Putin beyond the embarrassment of his forces who appear to be caught flat-footed. More than 30 Russian municipal deputies have signed a petition calling for the longtime leader’s resignation, a rare criticism of the president who has over the years tried to stifle opposition. Russian nationalists also called on Putin to make immediate changes to the Kremlin’s military campaign, Reuters reported. And Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a key Putin ally, on Sunday criticized the Russian military for the retreat. “They have made mistakes and I think they will draw the necessary conclusions,” Kadyrov said in a message posted on his Telegram account and translated by the Guardian. Putin also faced controversy after the increased backlash of Ukraine by Russian media commentators, who argued that Ueland could prompt a change in his strategy. “So what does he choose to do if there is a steady erosion of public support for him and Russia? Does this mean he is redoubling his efforts in Ukraine? Does this mean he is moving to try to suppress internal dissent? Does this mean he is moving to scapegoat some of the failures here? No one knows,” he said. “And it’s very unpredictable.” Krebo-Rediker said she was “enjoyed” by the “little crack in the ice” with the debate on Russian television over the weekend, but said it could lead to more action from Putin. “I think the likely path forward for Putin is more indiscriminate attacks, more domestic televised calls for more mobilization, a possible gradual increase or recruitment of troops from across Russia,” he said. “Russia will somehow need to increase its troop levels to deal with Ukraine going forward.” The stunning losses for Russia come as Moscow has desperately sought arms and aid from allies such as Iran and North Korea and backed China. Beijing has so far not publicly offered any aid, but has refused to condemn the war and has criticized sanctions against Russia. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping this week are expected to speak on the sidelines of a regional summit in Uzbekistan, the first time they will meet face-to-face since Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine. The United States is watching the interaction closely as the two countries have become closer partners in recent years. “We have made clear our concerns about the depth of China’s alignment and ties with Russia, even as Russia pursues a war of aggression in Ukraine,” Jean-Pierre said. Samar Ali, a White House aide to the Department of Homeland Security under former President Obama, said if China withdrew support for Russia, it could lead to the withdrawal of support from other Russian allies, such as North Korea and Iran . Woman accused of making death threats against judge in Trump documents case Smoke from raging Pacific Northwest wildfires is spreading far inland, worsening air quality “If we see that China decides that Putin is not the horse to back right now, obviously I think that’s favorable for the world, for global stability and order,” he said. “So we’ll have to see if China shifts its energy away from Putin, will other countries follow suit and will that further weaken Putin and strengthen Ukraine, the US and our allies?” Krebo-Rediker, however, argued that China is unlikely to discredit Putin despite Moscow’s problems. “I don’t know if there is any hope that behind the scenes, China can at some point play a more constructive role than it has to date. But certainly in this upcoming meeting, I don’t imagine there will be any public display of discord,” he said.
