But while Anglade was there, the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) candidate in the neighboring riding of Mégantic announced she was dropping out of the race. It was the fourth day of the election campaign and the fourth day that Anglade had been bombarded by questions about her party’s organization: about the lackluster campaign finance, the PLQ’s incomplete list of candidates and polls showing the PLQ, by the dissolution of Quebec’s Official Opposition, it risks losing some of its 27 seats on October 3. Anglade says she knows what she’s up against. “When I decided to present myself as leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec, it was not because it was easy, but because the challenge was worth it,” Anglade said in a televised interview last week with Radio-Canada. But some analysts say Anglade and her PLQ face nearly insurmountable odds and how they fare could end up shaping Quebec politics for years to come. “The numbers for the Liberals have looked dire now for a while,” said Philippe J. Fournier, the expert and poll analyst behind the site. Qc125. “I don’t think the Quebec electorate realizes how deep a hole the Liberals are right now.” WATCHES | What’s wrong with the Quebec Liberal Party?
Quebec Liberal Party campaign ‘going very badly’, poll analyst says
Philippe J. Fournier, the poll analyst behind the website Qc125, says the Liberal numbers are scary in the Quebec election.
Bet on the house
Once a political finance juggernaut, the PLQ raised an average of $8.37 million annually from 2003 to 2008. Fast forward to 2022, and the party’s fundraising is lagging behind all of its main rivals. According to Éelections Québec data analyzed by CBC News, the PLQ has raised $369,921 so far this year — in fifth place, behind Éric Duhaime’s fledgling Conservative Party of Quebec (CPQ), which has raised $529,477. This means that PLQ has had to take out a fairly large loan to finance the current campaign. In August, he borrowed against two buildings he owns, in Quebec City and Montreal. “We have chosen to go with a housing line of credit, a maximum of $2 million, which we will use as needed during the campaign,” the party said in a statement to Radio-Canada. Guillaume Cliche-Rivard of Québec Solidaire is in a three-way race with Dominique Anglade and Nicolas Huard-Isabelle of the CAQ in the riding of Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne, according to expert Philippe J. Fournier. (Kate McKenna/CBC) The statement also said the party is in “excellent financial condition” — the only party to have $4.7 million in real estate assets. But Laval University professor Valérie-Anne Mahéo says the slow flow of donations could signal more than a need to turn elsewhere for cash. The political scientist said longtime PLQ loyalists may stop donating if they don’t believe in the party’s current direction. “We see that donors donate when they believe in the party and the possibility of the party winning,” he said. “If people don’t see the party as a good prospect, they’re probably not going to give their money.”
Fort Montreal shows some cracks
It’s early in the campaign, but Fournier said there are already some signs that Anglade may be in trouble in her own riding, the traditional Liberal stronghold of Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne in southwest Montreal. All party leaders except Anglade managed to raise more political donations than the candidates they faced in their own ridings. In Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, however, Guillaume Cliche-Rivard of Québec Solidaire, an immigration lawyer, has raised $16,367, while Anglade has raised only $12,643. “We feel it. It’s very positive on the ground,” Cliche-Rivard said last week. “I feel like we have the momentum.” “Democracy will speak. People will see who represents their values.” Fournier said recent polling shows that aside from the riding of Anglade itself, the Liberals could be in trouble in other long-standing ridings in Montreal, including neighboring Verdun, which they haven’t lost since 1939. “Some traditional Liberal positions, especially in Montreal and Laval, could change color if the Liberals don’t flip it,” Fournier said. Anglade, seen with local candidates on August 30, 2022, began her campaign in the Quebec region. (Caroline Boucher/Canadian Press)
Slowly exit the gate
Since the date of this year’s election was no secret, the fact that the Liberals entered the race without a candidate in 17 ridings raised some eyebrows. The party now has a full ballot of 125 candidates, but for the last-minute additions, it is clear that the party had to scramble. “They even had to withdraw some candidates from the political staff,” Mayo pointed out. This happens in at least three ridings. Anglade tried to put distance between the slow start to the campaign and the situation in the second week of the campaign. “Last week was last week, but if you look at the ground, you feel people are coming to us more and more,” Anglade told CBC Radio’s Quebec AM last Monday. WATCHES | How Quebec’s new political landscape is hurting the Liberal Party:
The political scientist analyzes why Quebec went from two-party to multi-party this election
Political science professor Valérie-Anne Mahéo explains the challenges facing the Liberal Party amid the new political landscape in Quebec.
The political landscape is changing
Part of the Liberals’ problem is that, like the Parti Québécois, they are struggling to position themselves in a political landscape where Quebec sovereignty is no longer the main issue, Mahéo and Fournier say. The CAQ, led by François Legault, has adopted a nationalist agenda while still operating within Canada. Legault’s strategy seems to be working: Qc125 gives CAQ a 99 percent chance of winning a majority on October 3. With the focus shifting from sovereign-versus-federal on issues to a more traditional left-to-right spectrum, parties that have been each other’s main rivals since the 1970s have become unaligned. “The Liberals and the Parti Québécois fought each other over the national question, for what, 50 years?” Fournier pointed out. “Right now it looks like both of these parties have no muscle memory of how to campaign for anything else.” That change, first evident in the 2018 election, may have changed Quebec politics forever, Mahéau said, and parties must find a way to adapt or risk long-term pain. “We have seen significant transformations in the political landscape of Quebec,” he said. “The PLQ is not the main or obvious choice for federalists in Quebec, and it is not the main or only choice for people on the right of the spectrum.”
