As discussed last week, the devastating toll of historic floods in Pakistan and summer-long heatwaves and droughts in the Northern Hemisphere show signs of escalating. A peer review has found that several catastrophic climate tipping points, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and the currents of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean, may now be inevitable. But there is also evidence that action to combat the climate crisis is picking up belatedly. Recognizing that every fraction of a degree of global warming avoided makes a difference, here are some things to be positive about.
Falling emissions in China
While Australia’s emissions rose in the latest figures, China – the world’s biggest annual carbon polluter – recorded an 8% drop in the June quarter and a 3% year-on-year decline. As analyst Lauri Myllyvirta reported in Carbon Brief, the drop compared to the same period in 2021 was 230 million tonnes – equivalent to almost half of Australia’s annual emissions and the largest reduction in Chinese carbon pollution in at least a decade. It was driven by both short-term and long-term trends: falling real estate, Covid-related restrictions, weak growth in electricity use and continued expansion of renewable energy. It’s too early to tell if this is a permanent decline – a recently announced stimulus package may encourage construction and the use of clean and dirty energy – but it’s the fourth straight quarter in which pollution has fallen. Despite talk that China is continuing to build coal-fired power plants, electricity production from burning the dirty fuel fell 4% in the first six months of the year. As with most types of infrastructure, the country is building more coal capacity than it needs. That could yet be reversed, at least temporarily – coal-fired power has rebounded in recent weeks as hydropower capacity has been reduced by extreme drought and heat, and China’s UN commitment is that its emissions will peak before 2030.
Renewable energy – particularly solar – is happening
An International Energy Agency (IEA) report found that more people are now employed in clean energy (which it defined as including renewables, electric vehicles, energy efficiency measures and nuclear power) than the fossil fuel industry. One small problem: clean energy jobs don’t pay as well, in part because they’re less likely to become unionized. But the argument that there are no clean energy jobs is gone. Clean energy investment has grown by 12% annually since 2020, in part due to increased public and private support for sustainable financing, especially in rich countries. Renewables, new grids and energy storage account for more than 80% of total energy investment. The IEA estimates that spending on solar power, batteries and electric vehicles is now growing at a pace consistent with achieving global net zero emissions by 2050. In Europe, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted energy supplies, there has been a significant shift to renewables, even as countries offer short-term support for fossil fuels to keep the lights and heating on. British think tank Ember found that a record northern summer of solar output meant the continent was able to avoid spending 29 billion euros ($43 billion) on natural gas. Across the 27 EU countries, renewables provided 35% of electricity, compared to 16% from coal. According to a Bloomberg NEF analysis, manufacturing of solar polysilicon – the semiconductor used in solar panels – is happening so fast that the entire supply chain needed to stop emissions is already under construction. It’s almost all in China – just one of many potential complications outlined by Bloomberg’s David Fickling – but it says something about what’s possible.
The rich are finally starting to move up (sort of)
There was no agreement at UN climate talks on the rich paying to help the developing world deal with the inevitable loss and damage caused by global emissions, but the rich are finally moving to lead a clean energy transition in some of the countries that will matter. Subscribe to Guardian Australia’s Morning Mail Our Australian morning news email breaks down the key national and international stories of the day and why they matter Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. The goal is quite simple – to give the big emerging polluters the financial and other support needed to move their economic expansion away from fossil fuels. A model agreement was announced at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, when South Africa signed up to a Germany, UK, US and EU partnership pledging $8.5 billion of global capital over the next three to five years. the country is restructuring its coal-dependent energy system. In June, the G7 confirmed a bigger goal – accessing up to $600 billion in public and private funding over five years for clean energy infrastructure in countries such as Indonesia, India, Senegal and Vietnam. Together with other steps, such as G20 countries pledging to stop financing new coal power abroad and the Asian Development Bank’s Energy Transition Mechanism, it could redefine what is possible. Ensuring that local communities are not exploited or left behind in the process will be crucial to its success.
The US has landed its white whale
This is arguably the biggest reason for optimism this year. After years of trying and failing, the US – the largest historical emitter of pollutants – has passed major climate change legislation through its Congress. The analysis found that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could push the country to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels – a big jump from where it was otherwise headed. If her political system holds together, she should make the national target of a 50% cut this decade, and bigger cuts beyond that, within reach. A key point to note: US law underscores that punishing fossil fuel industries with carbon pricing is, if not dead, out of fashion. The IRA is mostly about investments – $370 billion of it – to help clean solutions usurp the old, dirty model. Much of it will only be available on products made in the USA. Experts say that in addition to reducing local pollution, this could also increase competition and lower costs in international markets.
Australia is no longer completely backward
Compared to the US, the passage of Australia’s first climate change legislation in a decade is secondary news – it’s a smaller country and a more modest bill – but it’s still arguably one of the positive stories of the moment. After years of Australia being bracketed with Russia and Saudi Arabia as a global laggard, the Albanian government will win praise for its new 2030 emissions reduction target (a 43% reduction compared to 2005) at the next major summit of the UN on climate in Egypt in November. But the Labor government can also expect questions. More importantly it is likely to be the same as what he takes home: will he really undermine his new commitment and global effort by continuing to expand fossil fuel exports? He may need to develop a better answer.
