NOAA SWPC
September 11, 2022
IA. Analysis of solar active regions and activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 11/1438Z from site 3098 (N18W22). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a small chance of an M flare on days one, two and three (September 12, September 13, September 14). IIA. Summary of Geophysical Activity 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at calm to unstable levels for the past 24 hours. The speed of the solar wind reached a maximum of 511 km/s at 10/2104Z. The total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0913Z. The maximum southern component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV in geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21637 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on the first day (September 12) and quiet to unstable levels on the second and third days (September 13, September 14). III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 SepClass M 20/20/20Class X 01/01/01Proton 05/05/05PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm FluxObserved 11 Sep 152Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 150/148/14390 Day Mean 11 Sep 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 010/014Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 007/008Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 006/005-009/010-008/00 VI. Probability of Geomagnetic Activity 12 Sep-14 SepA. Medium Range Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 05/1/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/20/20 Co-founder of SpaceRef, Researcher Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.
