Publication date: September 11, 2022 • 26 minutes ago • 3 minutes reading • Join the discussion FILE PHOTO: Amani Chehade, a prescription pharmacist at Aspen Landing Shoppers Drug Mart in Calgary, holds a vial of the flu shot on Oct. 18, 2020. Photo by by Jim Wells/Postmedia

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The flu has barely made a dent in Alberta over the past two years, as circulation of the virus has been greatly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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But experts worry that a perfect storm of factors could lead to a severe flu season this winter, as laxer public health measures alongside weakened population immunity could make it easier for the winter virus to spread widely. Sign up to receive daily news headlines from the Calgary Herald, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. By clicking the subscribe button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300

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These concerns are heightened by the ongoing flu season in Australia, where confirmed flu cases are around three times the annual average. In neighboring New Zealand, flu hospitalizations are at a seven-year high. This part of the world is considered the bellwether for flu seasons in the northern hemisphere, said pharmacist Brian Jones. “We’ve always looked at what’s happening in Australia as an indication of what could happen here,” said Jones, who works at Walden Shopper’s Drug Mart in Calgary.

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“There has been a huge increase in flu cases in Australia. On the cautious side, expect that could happen here as well. The whole idea of ​​making a flu vaccine is even more important this year than it has been in the past two years.” Pharmacist Brian Jones poses for a photo at Walden Shoppers Drug Mart on Friday, September 9, 2022. Azin Ghaffari/Postmedia The past two years have seen unprecedented flu seasons, said Dr. James Dickinson, a professor at the University of Calgary’s Cumming School of Medicine who directs the Alberta Community Influenza Surveillance Program. In 2020–2021, Alberta recorded zero laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza, despite an increase in testing. Only 13 cases have been confirmed across Canada. The following year, a late flu season saw 2,906 laboratory-confirmed cases and 14 flu deaths in Alberta — both numbers significantly lower than the five seasons that preceded the pandemic.

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A relative absence of influenza in recent years means weakened immunity at the population level, Dickinson said. “The usual immune stimulus that comes from the flu that’s there, even if you don’t get it, you might encounter it and your immune system will respond to that,” he said. “It keeps your immune system in tune, but we haven’t had that for a few years, so there are a lot of people whose systems aren’t ready. First of all, kids who have just never known the flu, and secondly, kids who haven’t had that boost that you get most years.” It is unknown exactly how much the public health measures of COVID-19 also limited the spread of influenza and other respiratory viruses. But Dickinson said those measures clearly had an effect, and their removal will play into this year’s flu season.

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“We know that these diseases are transmitted by aerosol droplets and by contact. When you reduce it and people are wearing masks and social distancing with careful hygiene, that will make some difference,” he said. The flu vaccine is not yet available in Alberta, with the province’s annual vaccination campaign scheduled to begin in mid-October — one Dickinson said will be even more important this year than in recent seasons. Alberta’s highest flu vaccination rate occurred in the 2020-21 season, when 37 per cent of Albertans rolled up their sleeves. That number fell below 27 percent last year.

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If historical trends follow, the majority of Albertans will not get a flu shot again this year. But Jones encouraged people to think beyond themselves by choosing to take this seasonal shot. “There’s a lot of people out there who say, ‘I’ve never had a flu shot, I’ve never had the flu.’ But you do it for others,” he said. “Most of us in our lives have vulnerable people around us. We have grandparents, we have immunocompromised people, we have people with asthma or other lung conditions, people undergoing chemotherapy. We could meet these people and not realize it, just going about our day to day. So it’s a do-for-others mindset that I would strongly urge for people.” [email protected] Twitter: @jasonfherring

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