Throughout this conflict, the Kremlin’s first instinct to suffer any serious setback on the battlefield is to engage in a blatant cover-up. This happened in April, when the Ukrainians managed to destroy the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Instead of admitting that the warship had been sunk by missiles, Moscow tried to convince the Russian public that a mysterious explosion on board was to blame. That Russian commentators now readily admit that the Ukrainians won a “significant victory” through their dramatic offensive against Russia’s northern front suggests that, for all the Kremlin’s spin, Putin’s military adventure in Ukraine is in real trouble. Ukraine’s push to seize several strategic strongholds around the northeastern city of Kharkiv has reclaimed Ukrainian territory roughly the size of Lancashire, according to the latest military estimates. In what will be Russia’s worst defeat since March, when Moscow was forced to abandon its efforts to seize the capital Kyiv, Ukrainian forces managed to retake dozens of towns and villages near Kharkiv. The surprise attack, which began six days ago, could have potentially devastating consequences for Russian forces, as the breakthrough means the Ukrainians are now able to threaten Russia’s vital supply lines. In particular, the capture of the strategically important city of Kupyansk by Ukraine’s 92nd Mechanized Brigade on Friday is a major setback for Russian forces. Kupyansk is the main supply depot for the tens of thousands of Russian forces operating in the Kharkiv region, and its capture means that up to 15,000 Russian troops are now completely surrounded, with no access to military supplies. The scale of the devastation is forcing even pro-Russian officials to acknowledge that the Ukrainians are gaining ground in key areas of the conflict. Vitaly Ganchev, a Russian-appointed official based in the region, conceded that Ukraine had won what he called a “significant victory,” while regional officials installed by Russia called on citizens to evacuate the nearby town of Izium. Even Moscow admits its front line in the Kharkiv region has collapsed, although Russian defense officials insist it is merely a tactical withdrawal to allow their forces to regroup and launch a counter-offensive. However, the columns of abandoned Russian tanks and heavy weapons dotting the recaptured area tell a different story, suggesting that the tide of the conflict has now shifted decisively in Kiev’s favor. The Ukrainian achievement certainly shows that, far from being the weakest force in the conflict, the Ukrainian military has both the resources and the know-how to make a decisive impact on the battlefield against what is technically supposed to be a vastly superior Russian strength, both in terms of equipment and manpower. The advance around Kharkiv, for example, has been achieved through a classic tactical diversion. Ukraine’s actions suggest its main objective was to recapture the key strategic southern city of Kherson, which controls access to Russian-held Crimean ports. The Ukrainian move against Kherson forced Russia to redeploy forces further south, thereby weakening its defenses in the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian war effort, moreover, has benefited enormously from the military support it has received from NATO nations such as Britain and the US, especially the long-range HIMAR missile systems that have allowed the Ukrainians to target and destroy Russian military installations with deadly accuracy. . Instead, the Russian military appears demoralized and unable to mount an effective response against the Ukrainian offensive, a situation that does not bode well for Putin’s dream of reuniting Ukraine with Mother Russia. If the Ukrainians can maintain the impressive military gains they have made in recent days, then Putin will soon find himself staring into the abyss of a catastrophic defeat.
