While the FBI conducts a criminal investigation, the office that leads the intelligence community is also conducting a review — currently on hold pending a court ruling — of the damage that would result from the disclosure of the documents found at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach , Florida. The investigation comes at a dangerous time in American politics, with growing threats to law enforcement and election workers and as a growing group of officials attack the FBI and spread baseless theories about voter fraud. There is already a wide range of speculation about what the documents contained, with some Democrats pointing to the report for possible nuclear secrets, while some Trump allies suggest the case is a benign argument about stockpiling. So far, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has proceeded cautiously, issuing no public statements and refusing to answer questions about the structure of the review or how long it will take. A look at what’s known and expected: NO OFFICIAL “DAMAGE ASSESSMENT” According to the government, the documents seized at Mar-a-Lago and the documents handed over by the Republican former president previously included highly sensitive “Special Access Program” designations, as well as flags for information coming from classified human sources and electronic programs. signals. These forms of intelligence are often produced by the CIA or the National Security Agency, and the underlying sources can take years to develop. The ODNI review will try to determine the potential damage if the secrets in these documents are revealed. He has not said whether he is investigating whether documents have already been exposed. Avril Haines, the director of the National Intelligence Service, confirmed the review in a letter to the chairmen of two House committees. Haines’ letter states that ODNI will conduct a “classification review of relevant materials, including those recovered during the investigation.” Experts say this could include unclassified documents with notes written on them that may refer to classified information. Haines’ letter also says her office will lead an assessment of “the potential risk to national security that would arise from the disclosure of the relevant documents.” That’s different from a formal “damage assessment” that intelligence agencies have conducted after high-profile breaches such as revelations of programs by former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden. Damage assessments have specific requirements under intelligence community guidelines posted online, including assessing “actual or potential harm to US national security,” identifying “specific weaknesses or vulnerabilities” and “detailed, actionable recommendations for prevent future incidents.” Under these guidelines, the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, a subsidiary within ODNI, will lead the damage assessment. The center is headed by deputy director Michael Orlando, as President Joe Biden has yet to nominate a counterintelligence chief. It is unknown if the information review will include witness interviews. Haines’ letter says the ODNI will coordinate with the Department of Justice to ensure its review does not “unduly interfere” with the criminal investigation. For now, the Justice Department said the ODNI review has stalled after a federal judge barred the use of records seized at Mar-a-Lago in a criminal investigation. “Uncertainty about the limits of the Court’s decision and its impact on the FBI’s activities has caused the Intelligence Community, in consultation with the Department of Justice, to temporarily halt this critical work,” government lawyers said in a court filing. THE ANSWERS MAY BE UNSATISFACTORY The results may not come for weeks or months, and the full findings will likely remain classified. Lawmakers in both parties are seeking updates from the intelligence community. None are known to be planned. Former officials note that it is often difficult for agencies to diagnose specific damage from an actual or potential breach. Given the political climate and the unprecedented nature of an assessment of a former president, ODNI is widely expected to be limited and precise in what it says publicly and privately to Congress. But assessments like the one underway often help top officials and lawmakers better understand vulnerabilities and how to manage risk going forward, said Timothy Bergreen, former Democratic majority staff director for the House Intelligence Committee. . “No healthy organization or society can exist without a comprehensive review of its mistakes,” Bergreen said. “This has always been the great advantage of democracy over autocrats.” AN OFFICE ESTABLISHED AFTER SEPTEMBER. 11 Lesser known than many of the agencies it oversees, ODNI was created as part of the reorganization of the intelligence community after the 9/11 attacks. Amid revelations that the FBI and CIA were not sharing critical information with each other, ODNI was intended to oversee the 18-member intelligence community and integrate the disparate streams of collection and analysis produced by different agencies. ODNI oversees the writing of the President’s Daily Briefing, the distillation of top American intelligence provided to Biden and top advisers every day. Haynes is the president’s chief intelligence adviser and frequently briefs Biden in the Oval Office along with other national security leaders. Trump went through three directors of national intelligence in his final year, part of his long battles with the intelligence community. Some of its top officials have been accused of selectively declassifying information for political purposes. And before, during and after his tenure, Trump has accused intelligence officials of selectively leaking material to undermine him or of not being loyal enough. He has been outraged by the long-running investigations into allegations of Russian influence in his 2016 campaign, calling them the “greatest political crime in American history.” And he blasted the person who told a whistleblower he was pressuring Ukraine for derogatory information, saying the person was “close to a spy” who could have committed treason. Under Biden, Haynes and other top officials have been involved in declassifying information about Russia’s war plans against Ukraine. They also faced questions about overly optimistic assessments of Afghanistan before the fall of Kabul. Michael Allen, former staff director for the House Intelligence Committee, said the ODNI is uniquely positioned to handle such a careful assessment. “That, I think, is one of the reasons you have a DNI, to coordinate across the broad and disparate intelligence community,” said Allen, author of “Blinking Red,” a post-Sept. 11 information reforms. “That’s their bread and butter.”
