A new Marist poll released Thursday showed a 7-point drop from July in the percentage of Americans who cited inflation as the top voting issue this cycle (30%), though the issue remains the top overall concern in the same survey. Others pointed out that abortion access is becoming a motivator for Democrats and independent voters, arguing that Republicans — many of whom have struggled to get a message out on the issue since the Supreme Court ended federal abortion rights in the ruling of June — they shouldn’t shy away from the topic, while also trying to tap into other cultural flashpoints. Last month, Kansas voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed state lawmakers to further restrict access to abortion. The development emboldened many Democrats who have since made abortion a top campaign issue. Among the issues conservatives want to see GOP candidates weave into ads and speeches are gender identity, critical race theory and criminal justice reform, all of which they see as liabilities for most Democrats. “It’s very narrowly focused and it’s wrong if you think that the mom who fills up her gas tank isn’t the same mom who cares about her kids’ school and makes sure that CRT (critical race theory) isn’t a part. This mom is also dealing with two sets of issues, cultural and economic, and so elected officials need to meet voters where they are,” said Jessica Anderson, executive director of Heritage Action for America. Anderson said two “mature” Republicans running for re-election this cycle — Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis and Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson — should set a model for other GOP candidates in tackling a wide range of economic issues. and social issues. The tension between conservatives who want a deeper focus on cultural issues and Republicans who believe economic woes are the dominant theme this cycle comes as the GOP faces infighting in other areas as well: the caliber of candidates in key contests for Senate and governors, how party bigwigs choose to spend money and how closely the campaigns should align with former President Donald Trump — especially as he faces intense legal scrutiny over his handling of classified records after he left office. power. “Go ahead and add this to the pile,” said one GOP strategist who asked to remain anonymous because of their involvement in several races this cycle. “Republicans can’t agree on a message, we can’t agree on where to invest [campaign cash]and instead of hashing these things out behind closed doors, we argue about it in public.” But some conservatives say the party’s message is the most pressing problem because Republican candidates and outside groups are on the verge of starting to spend aggressively on ads, and the content of those ads should send a jolt of energy to his base. party if the GOP wants to remain in good position to retake the House and possibly the Senate this fall. “Our final step has to be compelling enough to make Republicans want to vote. ‘The economy is stupid’ no longer fits that category,” said a Senate campaign aide, who asked not to be identified. to speak honestly.
Costs for a counter-message
For this reason, a conservative group has begun to take matters into their own hands. Dark money organization Citizens for Sanity has pledged to spend millions of its own this cycle to deliver a counter-message, targeting voters online and the airwaves with warnings about so-called vigilantism in education, business and politics. The group has launched a series of provocative radio, television, billboard and newspaper ads that are at odds with the broader Republican message on the economy. A person familiar with the matter said the team has already spent seven figures this cycle between advocacy efforts and advertising. One of the group’s recent ads, which has garnered more than 2 million views on Twitter in less than a week, is a 90-second montage of gruesome local news reports and surveillance footage depicting violent crime incidents across the country. The ad accuses “woke far-left politicians” of allowing an “attack on public safety,” among other claims. A separate ad released Tuesday by the Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC associated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, tackles the same issue with a more traditional approach, using the words of Pennsylvania Democratic Senate hopeful John Fetterman, to portray him as soft on crime. The 30-second spot featured two years of footage of Fetterman discussing his efforts as chairman of the Pennsylvania State Council to end automatic life sentences for people convicted of second-degree murder. “Our crime advertising, in particular, is at matches where it makes the most sense,” an SLF official said, adding that “generally speaking, financial concerns tend to be the top issues.” Ian Prior, strategic adviser for Citizens of Sanity, said the group wanted to capitalize on what he described as a “major reshuffle” in the current political landscape. The group, which has already spent about $670,000 in ads since August, according to AdImpact data, will launch a new $600,000 ad buy in Washington, Texas and Arizona this week focusing on crime, “madness” and gender ideology. he confirmed to CNN. The group is “aggressively messaging” in Latino-dominated markets as Republicans try to maintain recent gains in Hispanic support, Prior added, and has previously run ads in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado about with the participation of transgender athletes in men’s and women’s sports leagues. “Latinos are fleeing the political left to embrace ‘woke’ policies — an agenda created by and for wealthy white privileged coastal liberals,” Prior argued in a statement. (An earlier CNN analysis found a 5-point shift toward Republicans in overall Hispanic vote preference, though a recent Pew Research Center study found that 56 percent of Hispanics oppose ending federal abortion rights, which could to negatively affect Hispanic support for the GOP come November).
Maintaining balance
So far, efforts to push Republican candidates and campaigns away from economic issues and toward cultural issues have been made outside the party’s consensus. As of the end of July, Republicans had spent more than $40.6 million since the start of the year on television ads targeting inflation, according to data firm AdImpact. Both privately and publicly, many GOP officials have also acknowledged that they see inflation and kitchen table issues as the most important to voters this cycle. “Inflation is all that matters to the public … at the end of the day, people vote with their pocketbooks,” conservative radio host Erick Erickson said on his podcast in mid-August. The SLF official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said internal party polling has repeatedly shown inflation ranks highest among voters’ concerns, although there are cases where Republicans may have to offer a mixed message that goes beyond inflation to focus on crime or immigration, too. The official said they had seen no evidence that serious issues such as gender ideology resonated deeply with large sections of the electorate. “Inflation is coming down across most demographics and income groups. Everyone’s filling up their gas tank, everyone’s going to the grocery store and seeing these price increases affect their budgets in real time,” the official said, adding that Republicans have “a buffet of messages ” which could work to the party’s advantage this cycle. “There can be races where we talk almost exclusively about one or the other (inflation or crime and immigration) or we talk about both,” the official said. Even conservatives urging candidates to talk more about cultural issues said they need to balance those messages with proposals to combat economic problems. “My advice to candidates is to do both at the same time; oppose the left and run on a winning platform that really shows voters what you care about,” Anderson said. “The Republicans, I think, have done that, but they have to do it a lot more in the next 60 days.” A foreshadowing of Biden’s primetime speech by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy last Thursday, in which the president blasted “extremist” MAGA Republicans and accused his predecessor of being a threat to democracy, could provide a roadmap for candidates, campaigns and conservative outside groups. look to reach both middle and grassroots Republicans in the final weeks of the midterm race. While the California Republican, who wants to become president if the GOP wins control of the House, has repeatedly criticized the current administration over gas and energy costs and peppered his remarks with references to the economy, he blamed Biden and the Democrats for “dismantling American democracy” with their policies. “Is it morally right that our children were forced to stay home from school while politicians dined out? When biological boys are allowed to compete in girls’ sports, does President Biden think that’s fair?” McCarthy said while lamenting “historic inflation” and “daily violence against innocent Americans” in the same breath.
