For war, it means seeing the disbanding of Russian forces in Ukraine. They may be able to stabilize their lines temporarily, but we have passed a point of no return. Russia’s forces were previously poorly equipped, undersupplied and with low morale. To that list you can now add terrified of encirclement. Some worry that this will force Putin to use nuclear weapons, but as long as the Ukrainians remain within their borders, that is unlikely – because Putin knows it will be the end of him, and possibly Russia.
Only a matter of time
Geographically, the Ukrainians divide the Russian forces into small pockets which they will deal with individually. The most difficult of these enclaves to defeat will be the Russian forces in Crimea, but once Ukraine isolates them by destroying the Kerch bridge that runs between Crimea and Russia, it is only a matter of time. The Russians aren’t going to be able to pull it together – we’re seeing a military in rapid decline, it’s just a matter of how fast it’s declining. Of course, for Ukraine, this means they are getting closer to their overall strategic goal: the removal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. This has been achieved with extraordinary skill and bravery on their part, and massive civilian and military casualties, including some 1.5 million Ukrainians who have been transferred to Russia. (Fortunately they have captured and are capturing thousands of Russian soldiers so these two groups may well be interchangeable.) It has also been done with billion dollar weapons, terabytes of intelligence data and discrete operational advice from Western countries, and especially the US and the UK.
