No. 1 Alabama hit a game-winning field goal with 10 seconds left to escape with a 20-19 victory over unranked Texas and earn a victory over a Longhorns team that lost starting quarterback Quinn Ewers to an injury in the first quarter . The fact that the ‘Horns pushed the Crimson Tide to the limit could actually garner more votes for Steve Sarkisian’s team than it received last week when Texas finished 28th in the polling. On the other hand, Alabama’s sloppy showing (15 penalties!) as a 20-point favorite against a previously unranked team is likely to affect its standing as the nation’s top team. Some of Alabama’s first-place votes from the preseason rankings had already gone to Georgia after the Bulldogs’ Week 1 win against Oregon. If the Tide lost votes from the defending champs while going 55-0 against Utah State, they almost certainly will fall further after Georgia beat Samford 33-0 in Week 2. If Georgia doesn’t end up jumping to No. 1 as we predict, the margin will be significantly closer. Alabama may still be ranked No. 1, but the sizable gap that existed in the preseason has closed. From here on out, every week a poll is held on who is No. 1 until one of the top three teams loses. The biggest uncertainty exists further down the rankings, as voters will try to determine where No. 6 Texas A&M and No. 8 Notre Dame should land after suffering respective big losses as double-digit favorites against Appalachian State and Marshall in Week 2. An unranked team at home is the reason to fall completely out of the top 25 after most weeks, but additional losses to No. 12 Florida, No. 17 Pittsburgh, No. 19 of Wisconsin and No. 25 Houston have made the rankings much more fluid. Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 poll will fare on Sunday.

  1. Georgia (Last Week — 2): The Bulldogs have now outscored their first two opponents 58-3 in the first half alone, posting comfortable, deep wins against Oregon and Samford. Georgia operates with ruthless efficiency, and it’s a level that no one else in the country has demonstrated so consistently so far this season.
  2. Alabama (1): It’s possible the Tide will hold onto the No. 1 seed and will certainly get a lot of first-place votes, but there are more pressing issues than whether the team is No. 1 or No. 2 in a given week in beginning of the season. The offense around Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young needs to improve, and the team as a whole can’t commit 15 penalties in a game like it did against Texas.
  3. Ohio State (3): No change from voters after 45-12 win vs. Arkansas State, but after a tough opener against Notre Dame, the Buckeyes’ offense managed to stretch out a bit their legs with four CJ Stroud touchdown passes — three to Marvin Harrison Jr. — despite Jackson Smith-Djigba and Julian Fleming being sidelined with injuries.
  4. Michigan (4): The Wolverines are currently in a battle with Hawaii.
  5. Clemson (5): There won’t be any significant efforts for voters after a 35-12 win over Furman.
  6. Oklahoma (7): An early scare against Kent State was leveled after halftime as the Sooners’ defense led the way while the offense found its footing in a 33-3 victory.
  7. Baylor (9): The Bears are currently in action at No. 21 BYU.
  8. USC (10): When will the Trojans play a team that can limit their offensive firepower? Stanford was not up to the mark as USC scored five touchdowns before halftime and went on to win 41-28 on the road to open Pac-12 play.
  9. Oklahoma State (11): Early on, it looked like Arizona State was going to add to the list of unranked teams that would go on the road and knock off a top-ranked team, but the Cowboys found their footing and pulled away in second half to remain unbeaten.
  10. Michigan State (14): Two straight wins against the MAC might not flash for some voters, but a well-rounded 52-0 win Saturday against Akron bodes well for their fortunes ahead of a road trip to Washington Week 3. Given the losses ahead, the Spartans are poised for an upswing.
  11. Arkansas (16): A bruising offense and early lead helped the Razorbacks earn their first SEC win of the season as they held off a second-half rally from South Carolina in a 44-30 victory.
  12. Kentucky (20): This Wildcats team was able to do what Utah couldn’t — enter The Swamp in primetime and come out victorious in a hard-fought 26-16 victory over the Gators. The win marked Kentucky’s second straight win over Florida (an occurrence that hadn’t happened since 1976-77) and the third such victory in the last five meetings of the series. The Gators were on a 31-game winning streak before the recent ‘Cats surge.
  13. Florida (12): A win against Utah now puts them in a good spot in the AP Top 25 as Florida remains a one-loss team. Now the challenge for Billy Napier and the Gators will be to bounce back from this loss and make sure they remain a one-loss team for as long as possible. Anthony Richardson had a devastating outing after showing up in Week 1.
  14. Utah (13): A 73-7 win against Southern Utah will turn the mood around the Utes’ schedule after a tough loss at Florida in the first round, but it won’t change their standings too much.
  15. Miami (FL) (15): It wasn’t much early — with some boo birds coming to life in the second quarter — but the Hurricanes pulled away late for a 30-7 win against Southern Miss.
  16. Tennessee (24): Knocking off Pitt in overtime led to Tennessee being one of the big movers in the bottom of the rankings. Since the Volunteers were unranked in the preseason and just reached the top 25, there is likely a cap on their landing spot this week, but that cap is likely close to where Pitt was ranked heading into the game.
  17. NC State (18): After scoring just three touchdowns in a win at ECU thanks to some missed kicks, ACC Preseason Player of the Year Devin Leary scored six touchdowns (four passing, two rushing) in a 55-3 win vs. Charleston Southern.
  18. BYU (21): The Cougars are currently in contention against No. 9 Baylor.
  19. Ole Miss (22): Things were a little tougher than some expected against Troy, but Ole Miss left no doubt in a dominant 59-3 victory against Central Arkansas.
  20. Wake Forest (23): The return of Sam Hartman provided plenty of offensive snaps in a 45-25 win at Vanderbilt.
  21. Penn State (NR): A 46-10 win against Ohio would move the Nittany Lions just outside the top 25 into the 20s and build plenty of excitement for next week’s road trip to Auburn.
  22. Texas (NR): If Texas wasn’t so close to the top 25 in last week’s poll, it would be unlikely the Longhorns could lose and continue to climb the rankings. However, last week’s ranking suggests they are already a top-25 team in the eyes of many, and Saturday’s performance against Alabama suggests they deserve that consideration.
  23. Oregon (NR): After falling from No. 11 to just outside the rankings, a comfortable win against Eastern Washington would garner the few extra votes the Ducks need to climb back into the top 25.
  24. Kansas State (NR): A dominant win against Missouri might draw a little more attention to the 2-0 Wildcats, who appeared on enough ballots last week to be in good position to crack the top 25 after a win against an SEC opponent.
  25. Pittsburgh (17): The Panthers are likely to suffer the same fate as the rest of the teams projected to fall out of the rankings, but the overtime nature of a loss to a team likely to move up could keep them on enough ballots to stay right around No. 24 or No. 25. Projected to leave: No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 19 Wisconsin, No. 25 Houston