Author of the article: Jesse Feith • Montreal Gazette Dominique Anglade on the campaign trail in Montreal. The Liberal leader is “probably still working to get people to understand who she is and what she is,” says Christian Bourque, Léger’s executive vice-president. Photo by Ryan Remiorz / The Canadian Press

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After years of dominance by the Quebec Liberal Party, several seats across Montreal and Laval could be up for grabs this election as support for the party shows signs of waning, according to a new Léger poll.

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The new poll puts support for the Liberals in both cities at just 28 percent, followed by Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent and Québec solidaire at 19 percent. Sign up to receive daily news headlines from the Montreal Gazette, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. By clicking the subscribe button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300

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By comparison, in the 2018 Quebec provincial election, the Liberals received 41 percent of the vote in Montreal and Laval. “It is certain that they will lose support across the island of Montreal and Laval, while the other parties are quite stable,” said Christian Bourque, Léger’s executive vice-president. “If this is the picture on election night, the Liberal Party has the potential to be seen not just as the party of Montreal, but as the party of the West Island.” The online poll was conducted by Léger for the Montreal Gazette among 600 English-, French- and non-English-speaking respondents from both cities between September 2 and 5.

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While the poll suggests some Liberal voters turned to the CAQ, the drop in support could also be partly explained by the rise of the Quebec Conservative Party, which has 13 per cent in both cities. Some voters may also have shifted to two new parties in the region, Bourque said: the Canadian Party of Quebec led by Colin Standish, which received 3 percent of voter intentions, and Balarama Holness’s Bloc Montréal (two percent). . The Parti Québécois, for its part, has 7 percent of voter intentions. Asked why he thought the Liberals’ support might be waning, Bourque said he believed leader Dominique Anglade was still trying to shake off the party’s poor performance in 2018 and past corruption allegations.

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At the same time, he added, the COVID-19 pandemic has also proved to be a challenge for all opposition parties. “The pandemic basically crushed the opposition. We saw the same in other provinces,” he said. “Today, Dominique Anglade is probably still working to make people understand who she is and what she does.” The poll also sheds light on the difference in voting intentions between English- and French-speaking residents. Fifty-three percent of respondents who identified English as their mother tongue expressed their support for the Liberal Party, while 40 percent of French-speaking respondents said they would vote for the CAQ if the election were held today. The latter, Bourque said, puts the CAQ in “seat-gain territory” in both cities, particularly in four ridings in Laval where the Liberals won by a narrow margin in 2018.

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The result in Montreal will be just as interesting in October, Bourque said. “We’re looking at a number of locations across the city that could be flipped,” he said. “And most of them would go away from the Liberals to either the CAQ or potentially Quebec Solidarity. Asked who they thought would be the strongest English-speaking supporter, 24 per cent of respondents chose Anglade, followed by Holness on 12 per cent and Standish on 8 per cent. As for the Conservatives, the poll shows that leader Éric Duhaime’s efforts to court the Anglophone vote have not borne fruit. Although 14 per cent of English-speaking respondents said they would vote for the party today, second only to the Liberals, this figure is almost the same as the overall percentage of respondents who support the party.

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“So it’s not like they’re making gains among traditionally English-speaking voters,” Bourque said, noting the party is strongest in the center and eastern parts of Montreal. The poll also shows that not one issue is emerging as the issue of the election. When given the option to choose between issues that could influence their vote, nearly a quarter of respondents said inflation or the cost of living. 23 percent said health care. 18 percent of respondents said Bill 96, the revised languages ​​law passed in May, would be a factor. Among English speakers, that number was 32 percent—the highest of any issue for the English-speaking community. However, when not given options of different issues to choose from, Bill 96 was cited as the most important issue by only one in eight English-speaking respondents.

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“Even for English-speaking Montrealers,” Bourque said, “(Bill 96) is part of a series of reasons or issues, but it’s not the defining single issue that some might have suspected.” Overall, 44 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the government’s work and 30 percent said they believed Francois Legault was the best person to become prime minister. In this category, Legault was followed by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois of Québec solidaire, with 14 percent, and Anglade with 13 percent. Just under half of respondents said they might change their mind about their vote. When asked who they would vote for as their second choice, 15 percent answered Québec solidaire, followed by the CAQ and the Liberals at 14 percent. For Bourque, it shows how much is still in the game heading into election night. “Election campaigns still matter,” he said. [email protected]

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