“Kupiansk is Ukraine. . . Glory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine!” Natalya Popova, councilor of Kupyansk city council, wrote on Facebook on Saturday. Kupyansk lies on key Russian supply routes to the Donbass region, a vast sweep of largely Russian-held territory. His arrest on Friday night prompted Ukrainian forces to surround and capture a significant enclave of Russian forces in Izyum. The success of the counteroffensive gave Ukrainian forces a tactical and morale boost, as well as a demonstration of their capabilities to the country’s Western allies. “Izyum will be under Ukrainian control within hours. The Russians fled and left behind weapons and ammunition. The city center is free,” said Taras Berezovets, press officer of the Bohun Brigade of Ukraine’s special forces. Videos posted on social media showed seemingly stranded Russian soldiers who had hurriedly abandoned vehicles and positions, leaving equipment and food strewn around their positions. Locals cheered Ukrainian forces as they advanced through liberated villages. Kyiv launched the attack earlier this week, taking advantage of depleted Russian defenses after troops were sent south to repel a Ukrainian offensive around Kherson. As many as 10,000 Russian troops could be caught up in the maneuver, estimated Lawrence Friedman, emeritus professor of military studies at King’s College London. “I am convinced that a few more successes . . . and Russian troops will flee,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview published Saturday by the RBK-Ukraine news agency. “And they will, believe me, because today we are destroying their supply chains, warehouses and so on. . . It will be like an avalanche, a line of defense will shake and fall,” he added. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, called a meeting of his security council on Friday, but spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin had no comment afterward and referred all questions to the Defense Ministry, Russia’s TASS news agency reported. Military analysts said Ukraine had launched the two, almost simultaneous attacks to overwhelm the central command system of the Russian military, which is struggling with multiple deployments. “Russian generals are afraid of making mistakes. . . which leads to the centralization of decision-making because everyone tries to push decisions as far up as possible to avoid responsibility. This kills their ability to deal with multi-pronged approaches,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister. “So that’s exactly what our armed forces do. . . they are attacking where the Russians do not expect and in more than one direction,” he told attendees at the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv this weekend. The success of the Ukrainian offensive so far has led one military commentator embedded with Russian troops to describe it as a “disaster” and “the biggest Russian military defeat since 1943”. But analysts cautioned that Ukraine’s early successes should be over-read because of the potential for overstretched supply lines, adding that it would be a mistake to underestimate the Russian military’s capabilities. To the south, Kherson’s offensive faces stiffer resistance and is reportedly taking heavy casualties as her forces face well-manned and dug-in Russian positions. “They [the Russians] they have very good electronic warfare. They have very good artillery. They have some high tech weapons. . . So you have to be careful, you always have to respect the adversary,” said General Wesley Clark, former NATO supreme commander. Russia is reportedly already sending more troops. Ukraine’s general staff said 1,200 Chechen soldiers had been sent to reinforce Russian positions around Kherson. Videos posted on social media on Saturday also reportedly showed the Russian military floating in fresh troops to reinforce Izyum.
