The two will meet on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov told reporters on Wednesday, according to TASS. India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan also make up the SCO. “This summit promises to be interesting, because it will be the first full summit after the pandemic,” Denisov said. “I don’t want to say that online summits are not complete, but still, direct communication between leaders is a different quality of discussion.” Xi and Putin actually met on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics last February, less than three weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, reaffirming what they called a “borderless” partnership, meant to represent the public their vision for the world and agreeing to work together in opposition to “further enlargement of NATO”. But this week’s meeting could mark an uneasy turning point in the relationship between the two powers, given the failure of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to achieve its key strategic goals. In the early days of the war Xi was troubled by the way Putin had carried out the invasion, according to a CIA analysis released to lawmakers on Capitol Hill, and since then, Xi has not backed the war in Ukraine outright. But Beijing has indicated that China believes the United States is the “main instigator” of the war, echoing the Kremlin’s talking points. Their summit could be a signal that while there may be some mistrust in the relationship, the two leaders are interested in deepening their relationship. Especially as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization emerges from Russia’s invasion more united than ever, Xi and Putin have even more reason to strengthen their bond. More than six months after Russia’s war in Ukraine, Putin is feeling the squeeze of sanctions and isolation. In addition to the sanctions, Russia in recent days has cut Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline flows to Europe and, in an effort to pressure Europe to bend to Putin’s will, said gas exports can return if the The West eased its sanctions. Moscow. US Secretary of State Tony Blinken urged European nations not to fall for Russia’s “bullying”. And European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated that Europe will reduce, invest in renewable energy and increase LNG imports from other countries, even under the threat of a harsh winter ahead, all in the name of curbing of Russian revenues used to finance the war. in Ukraine. In China, however, Russia has a key energy export partner. Just this week, Russia announced it would shift its gas shipments to China to be paid for in rubles and yuan instead of US dollars, as part of an effort to reduce Moscow’s dependence on Western and US currencies. This year, China increased its imports of Russian energy resources and increased its purchases of crude, petroleum products, natural gas and coal from Russia to $35 billion since the start of the war, compared to $20 billion last year. Meanwhile in Ukraine, the Russian military is faltering. Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive in southern Ukraine in a bid to retake Kherson, which Russia captured in the early days of the war. Ukraine has already won victories: Taking back two villages in the Kherson region and, just in the last few hours, advancing 50 kilometers into Russian lines in the Kharkiv region, taking back more than 20 villages, according to a Ukrainian general. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Ukrainian forces have captured more than 1,000 square kilometers since early September. Putin’s forces are not doing well, even according to top Russians. Russian military operations are facing a slowdown, according to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Russian supply lines are not doing well in a counterattack, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday. “The Ukrainians inflicted significant damage on Russian supply lines and ammunition resupply points and command and control hubs,” Austin told reporters Thursday. And the Ukrainians are not yet ready to go on the defensive. The Ukrainian military leadership predicted this week that unless there is a dramatic shift in aid to Ukraine to defeat the Russians more quickly, the war will drag on well into next year. The only way forward for Ukraine must include multiple counterattacks against Russia, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, and Lt. Gen. Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, first deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee Rada, said in an article published this week. “The US-China relationship is getting more fraught seemingly by the week.” The meeting with Xi will not be the first time Russia has leaned on governments sympathetic to Putin’s cause, as Russia’s war effort has pointed out. This week, two U.S. officials told The Daily Beast that Russia has begun relying on North Korea for missile and rocket artillery shipments in an effort to boost its military supplies to Ukraine. But in this case, it’s not just Russia making its case to China. Xi’s vision for the world aligns well with Putin’s—a vision in which democracy threatens their rise to power. And the meeting should be important for Xi as well, David Shulman, former deputy national intelligence officer for East Asia at the National Intelligence Council, told the Daily Beast. “The US-China relationship is becoming more fraught seemingly by the week,” Shullman said. “It is not one-sided that Russia only needs China because Russia is facing international and US pressure on Ukraine. From China’s point of view – I’m not saying that Russia is playing a key role in the Taiwan Straits and the crisis in a military sense – but having that partnership and having that relationship with Putin is important.” Tensions between the United States and China have escalated in recent weeks following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan – which China says it claims. Xi is likely to look at which partners he can rely on if these tensions come to a head one day. Having watched the United States muster a tough Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Xi is likely reframing his thoughts on Taiwan and is interested in strengthening Beijing’s relationship with Moscow, Shulman said. “There is a sense now in China … that China needs to think even more deeply about how to avoid being vulnerable to what the United States might do in the economic sector in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Straits [and] having as many partners as possible to push it.’
