Ted Cruz’s relationship with Donald Trump has been interesting in recent years.
You’ll remember—and if not, I’ll remind you—that during the 2016 presidential campaign, Cruz was one of Trump’s most outspoken critics. He called Trump a “pure coward”, a “pathological liar” and “completely immoral”. He also flatly refused to endorse Trump at the Republican National Convention that year.
Trump was not blameless (don’t be surprised). He suggested that Cruz’s wife was unattractive, that Cruz hid behind religion, and that Cruz’s father may have been involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. (Yes, all of this really happened.)
The two Republicans eventually hit it off — mostly because Cruz bent over backwards to get along with Trump because he wanted to run for president again someday, and he knew he couldn’t if he was the former president’s sworn enemy.
Well, someday is now – as evidenced by Cruz’s trip to New Hampshire this week to take down House candidate Karoline Leavitt, who is running in the state’s 1st District Republican primary.
During his visit to the early presidential state, Cruz said something remarkably candid about both his aspirations and the broader state of the 2024 Republican race.
“There are a lot of candidates out there who feel their oats and brag, “I’m going to run no matter what. I don’t care what Donald Trump says.’ Anyone who says that is lying,” Cruz told the Washington Examiner. “That’s a stupid statement for someone who is actually thinking about running.”
And he added the following:
“I don’t know what Trump will decide — nobody does. Anyone who tells you they do is making things up. The whole world will change depending on what Donald Trump decides. This applies to every candidate. This applies to every prospective candidate.”
This is 100% correct.
Everything that happens — including Cruz campaigning in New Hampshire and Florida Sen. Rick Scott faltering in Iowa this weekend — before Trump decides is a kind of pre-show.
It’s interesting and worth covering. But if Trump runs – and there is every indication that he will – then it probably won’t matter.
While there are pockets of anti-Trumpism within the GOP, the 2022 midterm primary season has largely confirmed the tight grip the former President still has on the party.
Which is not to say that no one will oppose him if he starts a campaign. I could see former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Florida Governor Ron DeSandis, and even Cruz entering the race with Trump. (It goes without saying that all of these people would certainly be in the mix if Trump shocks the world and decides not to run again.)
But the truth Cruz reveals is that Trump remains the main driver of Republican presidential politics. All roads lead to him and his final go/no go decision. And until he does, the race doesn’t really begin for any other Republican.
The Point: Trump’s announcement timing has been all over the place in recent months — though lately he seems content to wait until the midterms to make up his mind. Until he does, the Republican field is frozen.
