Why it matters: “Tipping points” refer to inflection points in the climate system that, when overcome, can lead to irreversible changes. Tipping points include the almost complete melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or the shutdown of the ocean current that includes the Gulf Stream.
The study shows that even the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming to 1.5°C is not enough to fully avoid some of the dangerous effects of climate change.
How it works: Researchers looked at 16 of these tipping points and determined that at current levels of global warming, the world is “already at the bottom of the five [climate tipping point] ranges of uncertainty’. What they say: “The world is heading for 2-3°C of global warming,” said Johan Rockström, co-author of the paper and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
“This puts Earth on course to cross multiple dangerous tipping points that will be catastrophic for people around the world. To maintain life on Earth, protect people from increasing extremes, and enable stable societies, we must we are doing everything possible to prevent tipping points Every tenth of a degree counts,” added Rockström.
The big picture: The United Nations warned in 2021 that the Earth will likely warm more than 2.7°C by the end of the 21st century unless countries further curb greenhouse gas emissions.
A UN-sponsored report published last year predicted that global warming at the end of the century could range from about 1.3 to 5.7°C compared to pre-industrial levels. It also determined that the world could reach the Paris warming limit of 1.5°C between 2030 and 2035. The planet has already warmed 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels.
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