Meloni, the leader of Italy’s Brotherhood who could become prime minister and who has in the past likened the couple’s relationship to that of Romeo and Juliet, said: “The photograph is the best answer to the left’s inventions of supposed divisions ». A few days later, rifts between her and Salvini, the League leader, showed at a business conference in Cernobbio, on the shores of Lake Como, where they disagreed on one of the most important issues of the moment – sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. Although both the Brothers of Italy and the League have condemned the war, Salvini, who once praised Vladimir Putin, even signing a cooperation pact with the Russian president’s United Russia party in 2017, said the sanctions were not working and instead they “brought Europe and Italy to its knees.” Meloni, meanwhile, maintains that sanctions are working, citing a significant slowdown in Russia’s GDP growth prospects, and since the start of the war has been adamant in her support for sending arms to Ukraine while assuring the international community that she is in favor of Europe and pro-Atlantic. Her stance is a marked shift from her criticism of sanctions against the Kremlin as a result of its 2014 annexation of Crimea, which she described as a “massacre” of Italian businesses. It’s a somewhat surprising shift from the leader of a party whose supporters are largely against the latest round of sanctions. And according to a poll this week, just over half of Italians oppose the measures because of their strong impact on the cost of living. But Meloni has the wind in her sails – the Brothers of Italy, a party with neo-fascist roots, is leading in the polls – and her approach appears to be two-fold: to try to woo voters while reassuring international observers. “Slowly but surely he realized that he could make it and end up as prime minister,” said Sofia Ventura, a professor of politics at the University of Bologna. “So he’s taken a bet. He does not want to scare public opinion and he knows that the leadership of the country means that he has to show that he is 100% Atlanticist and European.” Salvini, on the other hand, is trying to revive support for the League, which has fallen to around 12% in opinion polls, down from nearly 40% in August 2019 when he toppled his coalition government with the populist Five Star Movement in a failed attempt to force early elections that could have made him prime minister. “Salvini is seeing the support fall out of his hands so it’s clear he’s playing a different game,” Ventura said. The two parties are involved in a coalition forecast to claim a comfortable victory on September 25. The third member is Forza Italia, the party of three-time former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has also cultivated close ties to Putin’s Russia. As a coalition, they have pledged to maintain support for Ukraine and remain firmly on the side of the EU and NATO. Michele Geraci, a former undersecretary at the economic development ministry with close ties to the League, believes this will be maintained once in power, albeit with a possible change in approach to sanctions. “There is not really much difference between Meloni and Salvini – they have condemned the war in Ukraine and they are both nationalists with an emphasis on the welfare of Italy,” he said. “They also both want sanctions that will end the war – that’s the goal. There is a lot of confusion about whether sanctions work or not. Salvini is slowly realizing that he doesn’t, while Meloni may not yet. After the election campaign, when they have time to properly assess the impact, they may decide to either leave [the sanctions] or try to modify them.” Before the war, Italy was very friendly to Russia, maintaining close economic and cultural ties supported by intra-party factions from across the political spectrum, some of whom continue to defend Putin. The Five Star Movement, which set the wheels in motion to topple Mario Draghi’s government in July, has condemned the war but is staunchly opposed to sending arms to Ukraine and increasing military spending. TV shows have hosted pro-Putin commentators. “Since the end of the Cold War, Italy has not perceived Russia as a significant threat,” said Carolina De Stefano, professor of Russian history and politics at Luiss University in Rome. He noted that the League and the Five Star Movement had promised to ease Crimea-related sanctions when they formed a government in 2018, but ultimately no changes were made. “There has been an evolution in Italy-Russia relations and since February the Italian position has changed and in a really solid way,” he said. “There will be no turning back and I don’t see any possibility that Italy will go in the opposite direction from the European beyond the slogans.”
