Keep calm, it’s just a drill. Those are the contingencies the energy industry will be simulating next week as a regular annual gas emergency drill takes on national significance. The duration of the ‘Exercise Degree’, run by National Grid, has doubled from two days to four this year and will take place on 13-14 September and 4-5 October. It couldn’t come at a more opportune time: debate is raging about how likely blackouts are this winter, and if Liz Truss’s energy bills freeze, she’s increasing that likelihood because she hasn’t encouraged rationing. In the rest of Europe, officials have already taken steps to curb use in a variety of ways as Vladimir Putin further tightens his grip on natural gas supplies. Germany has limited heating in public offices to 19C (66F) and turned off lighting at public monuments. In Spain, air conditioning in hotels and restaurants cannot drop below 27 C. and in France, air-conditioned shops that do not keep their doors closed to save energy risk a €750 (£650) fine. In California, consumers have been asked to reduce consumption as the heat takes a toll on the grid. So far, Truss has refused to follow suit. While there have been hints of an upcoming public information campaign to encourage citizens to reduce their energy use, the new prime minister has so far refused to either introduce mandatory metering for households and businesses or urge the public to cut back. The decision is deeply political. While the government has argued that the country is not dependent on Russian gas, consumers are exposed to wholesale price increases that have resulted from Gazprom’s supply cuts to Europe. Low wind or very cold weather could also play a role in the increased chance of power outages this winter. Leaked planning documents suggest power could be cut for four days in January under a worst-case scenario. But after repeated Covid lockdowns, there seems to be a deep reluctance to tell the public how many times a day to use the kettle or when to put on the dishwasher, amid fears it will further erode libertarian Tory principles. Asked last week if she ruled out the energy bill, Truss said: “I rule it out. Yes.” The government has repeatedly said consumers and businesses need to be confident they will have the power they need during the winter. Liz Truss has ditched the energy bill and is focusing on oil and gas. Photo: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images “It’s really up to governments to give people good advice rather than allowing them to make the wrong decisions,” says Dr Jan Rosenow, director at the Regulatory Assistance Project, a think tank. “There’s a political risk in saying it wants to limit your energy use and this government has said it doesn’t want to intervene. They believe that energy use is an individual choice.” Stew Horne, head of policy at the Energy Saving Trust, a not-for-profit organisation, says: “In Europe, we are seeing national failures to reduce pressure on electricity generation and manage extreme costs. These discussions are well developed in other jurisdictions, but we don’t have it here yet. “Instead, we’ve seen a lot of individual interest from both consumers and businesses in reducing energy for this winter, as well as long-term measures like insulation.” Ultimately, with inflation running at 10.1% and £2,500 energy bills still freezing at nearly double Ofgem’s price cap a year ago, many consumers will be looking after their usage with or without a campaign under government or industry. Horne says: “There are already signs that people are self-serving or disconnecting, which is very concerning given that we are in the summer when energy consumption is typically lower.” However, there are concerns that the support package announced by Truss this week may discourage people who can afford these bills from saving energy at home. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warned: “If you keep prices flat, what is going to put a strain on supply is increasing the risk of ending up with shortages.” Accurate predictions about the likelihood of blackouts are difficult to make, while the question of whether Russia will completely cut off gas supplies to Europe looms large. Other possibilities, such as a reduction in the power supplied to the UK by Norway and France this winter, also loom. There are planned outages for two units at Heysham nuclear power station in Lancashire in October and November, threatening to put further pressure on the system. Subscribe to Business Today Get ready for the business day – we’ll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. However, Britain can take heart from its history. It is estimated that the average household experiences less than 30 minutes of power outages a year, despite extreme cases such as properties that lost power for days after storms earlier in the year. As the nights draw in, have ministers left it too late to mobilize the public around a campaign to reduce energy use? The foregoing suggests no. Take the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. In the days that followed, Japan quickly went into energy-saving mode, turning off lights, printers, vending machines and idling elevators. Business attire even changed to save air conditioning – ties were out, polo shirts were in. A landmark report by the International Energy Agency notes that severe droughts in Brazil in 2001 led to a 20% reduction in the country’s electricity consumption over 10 months through pledges and penalties for those who failed to reduce consumption. In the same year, blackouts were averted in New Zealand through a “10 for 10” campaign to reduce electricity use by 10% over a 10-week period amid concerns about hydropower shortages. “I’m surprised there aren’t any advisories or interim rules around energy efficiency,” says Rosenow. “Given the severity of the cost situation and the enormous risks in the supply chain, we have not seen significant initiatives to impact the demand side. We’ve seen a lot of talk on the supply side – around restarting fracking, oil and gas permits – but we still have a huge waste of energy.”
