Now it says the opposite – that hundreds fewer people died in New Brunswick in 2021 than normal. It’s a major change in a critical pandemic metric that has surprised health and data professionals and prompted calls for a detailed explanation from all government agencies involved. Tara Moriarty, an associate professor and infectious disease researcher at the University of Toronto, has been tracking the issue of “excess mortality” across Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. She is confused about what happened to the New Brunswick numbers. In July, Statistics Canada produced a chart showing nine years of deaths in New Brunswick with deaths in 2021 (in gray) increasing much more than any other year. This week, a revised chart showed that deaths in 2021 were similar to other years. (Statistics Canada) “I’ve never seen this before. I’ve never seen it before,” Moriarty said of a sudden drop in the number of deaths in New Brunswick. “The province and Statistics Canada need to explain.”
In July, Statistics Canada released estimates showing that 8,138 people had died in New Brunswick during the first 50 weeks of 2021. The number shattered previous records and was estimated to be 567 more deaths than would be expected in a normal, non-pandemic year.
This appeared to indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic had taken a far greater toll on New Brunswick residents than official government counts of COVID-19 deaths recorded, and prompted intense questions from the Legislature and expressions of concern from public health officials. But on Thursday, Statistics Canada released new estimates that lower New Brunswick’s death total for those 50 weeks to 7,272. That’s 866 fewer deaths than reported in July and now puts New Brunswick deaths in 2021 lower than normal, not higher. There have been no similar reviews in other provinces. Explanations from Statistics Canada have been limited, but appear to focus on ongoing problems it faces with the quality of mortality information provided to it by New Brunswick. Statistics Canada is tracking deaths in provinces each week during the pandemic. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick) “New Brunswick recently submitted preliminary death information to Statistics Canada,” Statistics Canada said in a statement Thursday about the significant change in New Brunswick’s death toll. “While this information provides more timely results, these incomplete data have increased the uncertainty associated with provisional estimates for recent reporting periods. “As a result … this information is no longer included in the interim estimates for New Brunswick.” Statistics Canada tracks deaths in each province each month during the COVID-19 pandemic and compares them to what would be expected in a normal year, in an effort to detect “excess mortality” caused by the virus as directly as possible. and indirectly. “To understand the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic, it is important to measure excess mortality, which occurs when there are more deaths than expected in a given period,” Statistics Canada notes in an explanation of the project. The agency showed New Brunswick with one of the highest death rates among provinces in the second half of 2021, but that has turned into one of the lowest. And although the numbers have always been presented by Statistics Canada as “estimates” and “provisional,” no other province has seen such a big change. Fredericton data analyst Ray Harris says the public needs an explanation about why the number of deaths in 2021 dropped from high to low if the new estimates are to be believed. (Rachel Cave/CBC) Some of the changes are so great that not everyone is ready to accept the new estimates as more accurate than the previous ones. For example, during the first two weeks of December 2021, Statistics Canada had estimated 439 deaths in New Brunswick just two months ago, but now puts the number at 326, a 26 per cent decrease. And from an estimate of 61 deaths above normal in New Brunswick in the last two weeks of October 2021 (359) to 20 deaths below normal (278) according to the current estimate. Moriarty said the involvement of multiple provincial and federal agencies in constructing New Brunswick’s death estimates makes it difficult to pinpoint the problem in the numbers, but she doubted Statistics Canada is solely to blame. “Professionally, they are extremely careful to be very conservative and cautious about their estimates and try to be as correct as they can,” Moriarty said.
“It’s incredibly important for trust in the institution, so they can’t be too happy right now.”
Ray Harris, a Fredericton-based data professional, has worked with New Brunswick’s COVID numbers throughout the pandemic, including the exaggerated mortality numbers. Former New Brunswick Health Minister Dorothy Shephard was peppered with questions in the legislature this spring about the high death rates in 2021 reported by Statistics Canada. (Jacques Poitras/CBC) He noted that the province has not always presented other COVID data in a straightforward manner and said such large revisions to how many people died in New Brunswick in 2021 would have to be fully explained to be believed. “This is a hot topic. People are looking at these numbers,” Harris said. “I’m of the belief that you should always try to build credibility, especially with data.” In a statement, the Department of Health said it was working with the federal government on the fatality issue, but no one was made available for an interview. “The department continues to work with Statistics Canada to ensure that the data and methodology are properly understood by both parties,” the statement said. “The Department of Health will also complete an analysis of its own death certificates to better understand mortality trends seen during the pandemic, as well as the contribution of COVID-19 to excess deaths.”